The Côte d’Ivoire electoral process is falling into place. The Independent Electoral Commission is in place and functioning. Antonio Moneteiro, the United Nations high representative for elections, left the country this week, his job done. The presidential candidates are starting to make themselves heard.
Premier Charles Konan Banny recently celebrated 100 days in the job with general consensus that he is proving to be a suitable candidate in a country torn in two by civil war.
His interim government is back on track with the move of rebel leader Guillaume Soro from the rebel-held Bouake to Abidjan.
Striking a resolutely upbeat note, Banny cast aside the caution of his previous incarnation as an international banker and declared: “The war is definitely behind us.”
The kicker appears to have been the roundtable talks in Abidjan earlier this month, the first on Ivorian soil since the country was split three years ago. Significantly, it was also the first time since then that the government and rebels have gone eyeball to eyeball without a mediator present. Further underlining the improved mood, a dozen public servants have moved into the rebel-held north of the country.
But for these developments to become truly meaningful, however, the disarmament process has to move into gear alongside the political talks.
Disarming the rebels and dismantling government-backed militia has previously proved to be the major stumbling block to the main target of holding elections.
The United Nations remains adamant that the October deadline must be adhered to — on pain of sanctions against anyone delaying or attempting to derail it.
But the Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies poses the possibility that the sheer volume of red tape and procedure, rather than malice, might hold things up again.
“The amount of administrative preparation required before polling, simply in terms of the re-establishment of national government in the north, identification and registration of voters is of such a magnitude that even assuming the protagonists’ cooperation in the process, elections will not be held in 2006 and may even prove problematic for 2007,” said senior analyst Richard Cornwell.