Before last Saturday’s match against the Bulls at Loftus stadium, Reds coach Andrew Slack held on grimly to the thought that his team could still reach the semifinals. All they needed was maximum points from their last four games, three of which were at home in Brisbane.
After the match he was generous in defeat and aware that there were bigger fish to fry than a Super 12 title in a World Cup year, particularly a World Cup due to be played in Australia. With three weeks of log action to go there are still two South African sides that can make it to the semi-finals, but the Bulls and the Sharks need everything to go their way.
First of all they have to concede that the Hurricanes and the Blues are already there with 34 and 35 points respectively.
Even with maximum points from their last three matches, the Bulls and Sharks can only reach 32 points from their current base of 17.
It might also be argued that the Crusaders, the defending champions, have all but nailed down a spot, too. They have 30 points and finish off against the Bulls (this weekend), the Stormers and the Brumbies.
While the Crusaders struggled at home against the Sharks last week, and while their last three ties are away, they can nevertheless be expected to pick up at least three points from those games to put them out of reach.
So it comes down to a race for one spot and there are five teams vying for it. Currently the Brumbies lie fourth with 25 points from eight games, eight more than the Bulls and Sharks, three more than the Highlanders and Waratahs.
The Brumbies play the Highlanders this week in Dunedin and the best result for the South African teams would be either a draw or a win without a bonus point for the Highlanders.
The Brumbies then play the Hurricanes in Wellington before returning to Bruce stadium to end against the Crusaders. They therefore have by far the most difficult run in of the five contenders for fourth spot and although they have run into tidy form, it’s not impossible that they could lose all three.
The Waratahs have played one more game than the other contenders and have a bye this week. They finish against the Highlanders in Dunedin, followed by the Chiefs in Sydney. The Bulls and Sharks would, at this stage, hope for a Waratahs win in Dunedin to peg back the Highlanders followed by a defeat to the Chiefs, although a win might also be okay depending on bonus point accrual.
The Highlanders have the aforementioned home games against the Brumbies and Waratahs and if they win both without a bonus point, may need two or three points from their final game to qualify in fourth spot.
That last encounter is an intriguing one, as it is against the Reds in Brisbane. South Africans have seen the highs and lows of the Reds over the past fortnight and will hope that the team that defied the Stormers with 14 men is the one that turns up at Ballymore.
In an ideal world, the above scenario would result in none of the Highlanders, Waratahs and Brumbies reaching 32 points. Which is utterly irrelevant unless the Sharks or Bulls pick up 15 points in three games. Only one can do so anyway, since they finish against each other in Durban.
By Saturday night we will know whether any hope remains for either. The Sharks look the likeliest contenders to fall off the bus, since they have to face the mighty Blues at Eden Park. The memory of how they played against the Crusaders in Christchurch may sustain them through training, although they know that if they had not lost a game they had dominated for 70 minutes, they would not be in such a parlous state this week.
Assuming they can not just win, but do so with style and a bonus point, the Sharks then travel to Brisbane to play the Reds, before coming home to King’s Park for that (possibly) epic encounter with the Bulls. But as well as they played last week, it’s asking an awful lot of Kevin Putt’s men to beard the Blues in Auckland and the real chance for South Africa’s pride to be restored lies with the Bulls.
This week the Bulls play the Crusaders at Loftus and if they can reproduce the spirit and energy with which they defeated the Reds last week a win with a bonus point is certainly not out of the question. The Crusaders may have their All Black halfback partnership of Justin Marshall and Andrew Mehrtens back, but that may be irrelevant if the Bulls pack plays to potential.
Assuming there is good news for the Bulls they then play the Chiefs at Loftus before the trip to the coast to play the Sharks. While the Cats did their best to make the Chiefs look like world beaters last weekend, we know they are vulnerable, far more so in fact, than the Sharks are likely to be in Durban.
All of which suggests that there is heartache in store for the supporters of both franchises because their form has arrived too late. The Sharks were woeful at home at the start of the year; the Bulls flattered to deceive overseas and lost a game against the Stormers at home that they should have won.
The crumbs of comfort may well belong to Springbok coach Rudolf Straeuli, who has seen a few boys become men in the Bulls pack and a few misconceptions about the difficulties of touring abroad fly out of the window with the Sharks. Good times are just around the corner.