The Bulls can still qualify for the semifinals of the Super 12, but after a heart-stopping win against the Chiefs last week, the fate of Rudy Joubert’s men is in other hands. By the time the Bulls run on to the field to play the Sharks on Saturday they will know what they are playing for and, sadly, the likelihood is that it will be pride rather than a semifinal spot.
The first result that needs to go the Bulls way is in Canberra on Friday morning (South African time). The Brumbies have made a fortress out of Bruce Stadium and even though their opponents are the defending champions, it is asking a lot of the Crusaders to do the Bulls a favour by winning.
The Super 12 final in 2000 was at the same venue and between the same two sides. The Crusaders won 20-19 and the pea had hardly stopped vibrating in André Watson’s whistle when Australian TV’s Simon Poidevin began to lay the blame for the home side’s loss squarely at the feet of the South African official.
It went without saying, of course, that no Aussie team could possibly have lost in a fair fight.
The Crusaders were impressive in hoisting a half-century of points against the Stormers last week, but using that result as a yardstick is simply not comparing apples with apples. And even if the Crusaders were to
repeat their slender victory in the 2000 final it would not save the Bulls, for a single bonus point for the Brumbies would take them to 31 log points.
The Bulls can reach the same mark if they beat the Sharks with four or more tries, but would still lose out on their massively inferior points differential. But let’s assume that the Crusaders give the Brumbies a big fat klap and the Aussie team remains on 30 points.
The next important fixture is 24 hours later in Brisbane, where the Reds take on the Highlanders. Laurie Mains’s men are in a similar position to the Bulls, needing the Brumbies to lose to have a chance of reaching the last four. So, if the Brumbies win this game is irrelevant, but if they lose, then the Bulls will be cheering on the Reds.
The Reds have been dreadful at times this season; their finest moment was in Cape Town where they beat the Stormers despite playing with 14 men for 70 minutes following the red-carding of hooker Tai McIsaac. Even home advantage has failed to galvanise them and the Sharks were mortified to lose at Ballymore last week.
The Highlanders’ influential All Black flyhalf Tony Brown will be missing, but what makes it even more unlikely that a big performance is waiting in the wings for the Reds is that a win for them may have the effect of
allowing the Waratahs into the semis.
However, let’s assume that the Reds and the Crusaders have both won. Now it’s down to a straight scrap for the last place between the Waratahs and the Bulls. The Waratahs have an extra log point, so if they do win it must not be by way of four tries.
If both teams do finish on 31 points it will be an intriguing contest to separate them on the basis of points. The Waratahs are — 35, the Bulls — 42. So the Bulls would not only have to beat the Sharks with four tries, but they’d need to win by eight points more than the Waratahs beat the Chiefs.
What complicates matters for the Bulls is that the Aussies are at home and playing against the basement dwellers of the tournament. The Chiefs have been competitive in nearly every game they’ve played, but have won just two of them. They have managed to pick up 10 bonus points along the way, more than any other team, but this does not make them a great side, merely one that loses close games.
It is therefore unlikely that, if the Waratahs are still in with a chance when the game starts, they will fail to win. But just for argument’s sake, let’s assume that all three of the Brumbies, Highlanders and Waratahs have lost their games and that the Bulls need a four-try win in Durban to reach the semis. Now it gets tough, because the Sharks are the most improved team in the competition over the past month.
When they left to go on tour Kevin Putt’s charges were regarded as no hopers, their confidence only slightly improved by a win against the Cats at Ellis Park on the eve of departure. What they have achieved on tour will be quickly forgotten, because they lost three of their four games, but the fact is they might easily have won all four.
The irony was that against poor teams — the Chiefs and the Reds– they played poorly, but against good ones — the Blues and the Crusaders –they played with immense courage and technique. But, as their captain Shaun Sowerby pointed out, you should never be happy about losing, no matter how well you played.
If results have been kind to the Bulls, they should be able to raise their game to beat a side returning from Australasia, even away from home. Although it would be ironic if the Sharks were regarded from afar as party poopers for refusing to allow that to happen.
Interestingly, Springbok coach Rudolf Straeuli has two scenarios in place for the game. If the Bulls are still in with a chance come kick-off in Durban, they will be allowed to select a full strength team. If not, then Joost van der Westhuizen, Victor Matfield and Pedrie Wannenburg will be withdrawn.
This is an attempt to keep these players fresh for the international hurdles that lie ahead, but it bears more than a passing resemblance to match-fixing. The aim may be laudable, but as Robert Burns pointed out 200 years ago, the best laid plans of mice and men gan aft agley. Accordingly, this is one occasion where Straeuli probably hopes he doesn’t have to intervene.