/ 5 March 2004

Gunners first in line

It’s a big, big week in Europe coming up. Especially for Manchester United and Chelsea. Arsenal? Most people reckon they’ve got the Premiership sewn up already, but down Highbury way there is an awful lot riding on this week’s Champions League last-16, second-leg games too.

The Gunners kick it all off on Tuesday when they defend a 3-2 first-leg lead over Celta Vigo at the old Art Deco stadium in North London.

Brazilian stand-in Edu, so much better than injured compatriot Gilberto Silva but strangely always behind him in the queue for a first-team place, took his chances in the first leg. He scored twice — the second a real screamer — as Arsenal swept home to Luton airport with their first ever win in Spain.

English clubs traditionally struggle against La Liga outfits, but Celta Vigo are struggling this season. In fact they’re so bad that their manager, Raddy Antic, might soon find himself in charge of Tottenham. Talk about a fate worse than death.

Vigo, 1-0 up against Real Madrid last weekend, were eventually thumped 4-2 and are are now in serious relegation trouble.

Arsenal should have no trouble maintaining their edge on Wednesday. But take into account these words from the great Thierry Henry this week: ‘Sometimes the team gets complacent and wakes up only after the criticism. We are our own worst enemies.”

I guess that means: ‘Beware the Ides of March.”

The other matches on Wednesday night should see AC Milan, held 0-0 at Sparta Prague, cruise through against the Czechs; Monaco, beaten 2-1 at Lokomotiv Moscow should come back, while the game of the night is at the Santiago Bernebeu where Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, the giants of the European Cup, are locked at 1-1.

Who do I fancy? The Spaniards of course! Have you ever seen a side better than that lot?

It’s Tuesday night when all the breath-holding will be taking place around Britain.

Chelsea, thanks to a solitary own-goal, supplied Germany’s VFB Stuttgart’s first home defeat in five years 10 days ago, a result to savour.

It’s the kind of scoreline that they have to come up with to justify Russian billionaire Roman Abramovich’s £130-million investment on players at Stamford Bridge. This week they spent £13,5-million signing PSV Eindhoven’s young Dutchman Arjen Robben — just to annoy Manchester United.

Poor old Sir Alex Ferguson must be wondering what’s going on. After he showed Arjen and his dad around at United a few weeks ago, the Dutch young player of the year said: ‘Old Trafford was really impressive. Everyone there made me feel really welcome and gave me the impression they really wanted me to come to the club. I have a good feeling about United and I hope things do work out in the way I want.”

And what happens? He goes to Chelsea! But it’s costing a lot of money to persuade these people to come. Anything less than a home draw, and a cruise into the quarterfinals, will put further pressure on the lovely Italian boss Claudio Ranieri, poor lamb. If I see another story linking England boss Sven-Goran Eriksson with Stamford Bridge, I shall scream. In fact. Eeeeek.

But what about Manchester United? Ferguson in trouble with the directors, Ferguson dropping Tim Howard, Ryan Giggs and Ruud van Nistelrooy, Ferguson losing to Wolves and drawing with Leeds and Fulham, Ferguson’s favourite son Roy Keane getting sent off.

And, of course, Ferguson whingeing after the first leg 2-1 defeat at Porto, inspired by the superb South African Benni McCarthy’s double.

The Portuguese side, like Arsenal, are unbeaten in their domestic league this season. I can honestly see them putting United out.

Mind you, better people than me have written United off and looked silly afterwards.

French hopefuls Lyon, surprise 1-0 winners at Basque stronghold Real Sociedad last week, should sneak through, along with Juventus, who first need to overcome a 1-0 deficit at home against Deportivo La Coruna.

So that leaves us with a quarterfinal line-up of: Arsenal, Monaco, Real Madrid, Milan, Chelsea, Juventus, Lyon and Porto.

Two from England, two from Italy, two from France (which would be a welcome surprise, most of their best players are engaged overseas), one each from Spain and Portugal.

Sounds about right to me. But no matter how much the rest huff and puff, Real will still win it.