/ 14 November 2013

2013: One of the hottest years on record

This year has been one of the 10 warmest since records began, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. Gallo
This year has been one of the 10 warmest since records began, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. (Gallo)

This year has been one of the 10 warmest since records began, according to the World Meteorological Organisation's Provisional Annual Statement on the Status of the Global Climate 2013.

The organisation, tasked with collating meteorological information across the planet, said the average global land and ocean surface temperature this year is 0.48°C higher than the average from 1961 to 1990.

The first nine months of the year tied with 2003 as the seventh warmest period on record – warmer than both 2011 and 2012. This was despite the absence of the El Niño or La Niña weather warming patterns that were responsible for the two warmest years recorded to date – 1998 and 2010.

"All of the warmest years have been since 1998 and this year once again continues the underlying, long-term trend," said the organisation's secretary general Michel Jarraud.

"The coldest years now are warmer than the hottest years before 1998."

With record levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and no reduction in emissions, the world has been committed to a warmer future.

The warming also means that global sea levels are at a record high. Sea levels have been rising 3.2mm a year since 1993, when satellites began recording them.

With 90% of all the incoming solar radiation going into the oceans, the report said the oceans will warm and expand for hundreds of years to come.

Arctic sea ice – one of the most visible and tangible examples of climate change – has recovered from its record low cover in 2012. But 2013 still makes the list of years in which the sea ice has been at its lowest levels.

Although there have been some alarming increases in regional temperatures – Australia's average daily maximum for January was 37°C – the global increase has been more gradual.

This is also the case in South Africa, where temperatures are increasing but not in a quick and catastrophic way. The predictions are that, by mid-century, the interior temperatures locally will increase by up to 6°C, with a 2°C increase along the coast.

This gradual change will, however, lead to big changes as entire ecosystems shift location or die out. The most tangible and problematic change will be in rainfall, with less expected everywhere across the country except in the northeast.

The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's big report ended any doubt that humans are driving climate change by saying it was "virtually certain" that this is the case.

This year, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases also reached the 400 parts per million mark – a number that climate negotiations in the 1990s said could not be exceeded. The new maximum number is 450.

World governments are meeting in Warsaw, Poland, for the 19th session of the Congress of Parties.

This is a continuation of discussions intended to create some sort of a globally binding agreement to tackle carbon emissions and climate change.

An agreement is supposed to come into effect in 2020, which should see every country urgently tackling its emissions problems.

See "Philosopher's tears for climate fears", Page 30

 

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