An uneasy calm holds in Addis Ababa this week as Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi feels the weight of his triple-decker troubles.
The death toll from a week of violent demonstrations in the capital against the alleged rigging of elections nearly six months ago approaches 50. The opposition has called for a week-long strike and the police presence in the city has been increased dramatically.
Back in May, 36 people died on those same streets when police fired on people protesting against the outcome of the poll, which was purportedly in favour of Zenawi’s Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front.
There has been outrage from human rights groups at this heavy-handed response. Donor countries are reconsidering assistance to the government in Addis, given these developments. Zenawi’s reputation as one of the good guys of Africa is looking less and less secure.
He is a member of the Commission for Africa initiated by British Prime Minister Tony Blair and the German government included him in a partnership forum along with other African luminaries just last weekend.
It was from Bonn that Zenawi expressed his regret at the latest deaths from political violence in his capital and promised a commission of inquiry into the affair.
His remorse was tempered by an injunction that the street protests were more than mere demonstrations and a reminder that seeking to overthrow the government of Ethiopia is a treasonable offence.
Zenawi’s detractors are asking how much store should be laid in a commission of inquiry.
The Ethiopian leader, still trading on his reputation as the liberation fighter who led the ousting of Mengistu Haile Mariam, has shown scant regard for the border commission findings on the demarcation dispute with Eritrea.
That commission has declared the town of Badme to be inside Eritrea. Zenawi has accepted this finding in principle but has not moved his troops out of it. He impressed the international community last year by promising, as host of the African Union summit, never to resort to war to settle the dispute with Eritrea, which got independence from Ethiopia in 1993 and fought a bitter border war until five years ago.
Now Eritrea’s President, Isaias Afwerki, might play into his hands and strike the first blow, inviting retaliation.
As it massed troops on the border, Eritrea stopped peacekeepers from monitoring the move by banning United Nations helicopter flights.
There was no petrol for private or business use in Asmara this week. It has all been stockpiled by the military. The country of 4,2-million keeps 300 000 soldiers under arms and spends more than half of its budget on defence.
UN Secretary General Kofi Annan has expressed concern about the possibility of a fresh outbreak of war on that tense border.
Zenawi’s third slice of trouble is in the marshy south-west Gambella region, where Anuak rebels have attacked government installations near the Sudanese border.
According to human rights watchers, government efforts in recent years to stop clashes in this ethnically diverse region have been excessive, with more than 500 people being killed.