Tank pipework onboard the Karmol LNGT Powership Asia floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU), operated by Karpowership, viewed from the ship's bridge whilst docked at Cape Town port in Cape Town, South Africa. Photographer: Dwayne Senior/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Gas, a controversial energy source, is widely regarded as a way for African countries to wean themselves off coal and reduce emissions. It’s known as a transition fuel but what does this mean? According to Cem Gürsan, a PhD candidate at the Nijmegen School of Management at Radboud University, in the Netherlands, a transition fuel is a low-carbon fuel (such as natural gas) which is substituted for a higher-content fossil fuel (coal and oil) to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Natural gas is considered as a transition fuel – a temporary solution to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions while more sustainable technologies mature.
However, there is a major divide where many are opposed to gas but others are serious proponents of its use.
An example is Mary Robinson, the former UN envoy. Speaking to The Guardian, Robinson made the case for gas by saying African countries had a demand for energy and that gas was crucial to achieving a just transition. She also called for developed countries to stop using gas, so that a climate breakdown could be avoided.
The International Institute for Sustainable Development explored the use of gas in a study.
“The gas industry has long proposed that their product can act as a ‘bridge fuel’ that facilitates the transition from high- to low-carbon energy systems.
“This notion is now obsolete as unsubsidised renewable energy in the form of wind and solar has already been successfully developed in South Africa, and is significantly cheaper than any gas-to-power options, in addition to the benefits of higher job creation per unit of energy, reduced environmental impact, reduced greenhouse gas emissions and not being subject to fuel price volatility. There is no need for gas as a bridging fuel for bulk electricity supply,” it said.
When asked if gas was a viable option for African countries, Vincent Obisie-Orlu, a natural resource governance researcher, told the Mail & Guardian that the answer was yes and no.
“In the shorter term, gas is a relatively cheap, energy-dense and non-intermittent energy supply. In the longer term, there is a risk of carbon lock-in for countries that invest in natural gas infrastructure.”
Carbon lock-in is a fossil-fuel system that impedes low-carbon alternatives and this can seriously damage climate initiatives.
The South African case
Blanche Ting is a senior research associate at the University of Johannesburg who specialises in coal, gas and renewable energy. She believes the push for gas is ambitious.
“It is important to note most African countries do not have sufficient infrastructure in terminals, storage, gasification and distribution pipelines for gas. They also don’t have the transmission/distribution grids for electricity.”
Gas can be used for energy or in industry, but if the argument is for energy security, and industrialisation, then gas makes sense.
“It is the distinction between access to clean energy and industrial development that is important. Both have various permutations, as the actors involved can be very different. I think gas and fossil fuels naturally will have concentrated capital with the known big players of multinationals. Renewables is more distributed; it probably has more diverse players in different countries.”
But she continued, “South Africa is somewhat of an anomaly – it is much more industrialised, and has a developed electricity system, despite its ongoing load-shedding woes,” she said.
Sasol is South Africa’s only supplier of piped gas and the company is fully committed to pursuing gas, believing it to be a crucial player in the energy mix. In a previous article, Hanré Rossouw, the company’s chief financial officer, said they regarded gas as a key component of the country’s energy future.
In 2021, gas contributed 2.6% of the country’s total energy mix, according to a report by the department of mineral resources and energy. The report went on to say “the meaningful addition of natural gas to the country’s energy mix will rejuvenate an overburdened, out-dated energy infrastructure and reduce cyclical energy shortfalls”.
“Perhaps even more importantly, it will stimulate the economy by allowing business and industry to lower their energy and operational spend while also creating significant numbers of new jobs and skills development opportunities.”
South Africa has abundant natural gas resources, the report says. The Petroleum Agency SA estimates that the country potentially holds 29 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves. Methane is included in that estimate but is considered risky.
The UN Environment Programme describes methane as a “primary contributor to the formation of ground-level ozone, a hazardous air pollutant and greenhouse gas, exposure to which causes 1-million premature deaths every year. Methane is also a powerful greenhouse gas. Over a 20-year period, it is 80 times more potent at warming than carbon dioxide. Methane has accounted for roughly 30% of global warming since pre-industrial times and is proliferating faster than at any other time since record-keeping began in the 1980s.”
It is clear that there is a push for gas in the country and one example is the Turkish-led consortium Karpowership which won a bid to feed 1 220 megawatts of power into Eskom’s grid in a 20-year project. The project has stalled because of environmental concerns.
The case against
There are many organisations that are against gas as an energy source, be it in a transitional way or as an energy source.
Robyn Hugo, director of climate change engagement at Just Share, a non-profit shareholder activism organisation, believes that gas is neither a clean energy source nor environment friendly. She also feels the country does not need to head down the path of gas for energy security.
“South Africa cannot afford the risks associated with investment in gas – exacerbating climate change, stranded assets, infrastructure lock-in, exposure to fluctuations in global gas prices. It cannot miss the opportunities presented by renewables – low emissions and cheapest pathway – including most affordable for users, diversified energy supply.
“Investing in fossil gas is a dangerous distraction from the urgent need to rapidly increase renewable energy production and upgrade SA’s transmission infrastructure.”
Hugo says gas will affect the climate badly. “Keeping the global average temperature rise to 1.5°C is essential to limit the worst impacts of global heating. This is only possible with immediate, rapid and large-scale reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Every fraction of a degree of warming will result in more dangerous and costly consequences.
“To meet our climate ambitions, we need to expedite the retirement of existing coal plants while building large amounts of renewable energy generation and transmission to meet growing demand. Failing to take more significant steps to reduce emissions in the short and medium term will require steeper and deeper emission reduction cuts in future, with more severe consequences for our economy and the majority of people in South Africa.”
The African case
As the world tries to reduce carbon emissions, what role does gas have to play? As a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there is a gas shortage in Europe. The idea of African countries supplying gas seems appealing to Europe. The Guardian reports that the African Union will be vehemently pushing the case for gas at COP27 to be held in Egypt in November.
When exploring what the Russia-Ukraine crisis means for energy on the continent, researcher Obisie-Orlu said, “if African gas producers can create an enabling commercial environment amid a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape, they just might be able to reap a financial windfall from increased gas exports to Europe, which should, in turn, result in more revenue to fill government coffers, create jobs locally, reduce poverty rates and support domestic development goals.”
Obisie-Orlu also believes European countries must support decarbonisation efforts and that the energy landscape is changing globally.
“The changing energy landscape also presents an opportunity for African countries to capitalise on this gap, one that can only be realised with the political will of the continent’s leaders.”
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