The fight between Oscar Mabuyane (right) and Ronald Lamola hasn’t been helpful to the Ramaphosa (left) campaign. (Lulama Zenzile)
It was a dramatic (and late) night to end day two of the ANC National conference. History was made because, for the first time, nominations for the top positions were made from the floor, with some meeting the required 25% threshold to appear on the ballot paper.
The ANC also passed a constitutional amendment to add a second deputy secretary general to the list of office-bearers. So,we now have a top seven.
Let’s summarise the state of play as voting is underway at Nasrec, in Johannesburg on Sunday.
The President
The gap is narrowing fast and Cyril Ramaphosa and Zweli Mkhize are now almost neck and neck. Delegates from North West, Limpopo and Free State have been pressured by the provincial leaderships to shift their support to Mkhize, having previously backed Ramaphosa. Some delegates will defy the provincial executive committees (PEC) but Ramaphosa’s electoral dominance from the original nomination process is gone.
Our estimates, which are based on the presumption that large parts of these provinces will shift to Ramaphosa, still has Ramaphosa with a slight lead at about 53%. But with growing allegations of vote buying (something which ANC spokesperson Pule Mabe declined to deny this morning), it is hard to be confident that the numbers will hold.
As one of the president’s campaign managers put it: “I am nervous, but not yet worried.”
Mkhize may not be a “pur”’ member of the co-called radical economic transformation (RET) faction. But, if he wins, he would have done so because of the support of the RET and will be beholden to them should he secure the presidency. It will be a huge change, with huge consequences.
Deputy president
The main problem that Ramaphosa’s camp tried to attend to on Sunday morning was “congestion” on its side of the ballot paper — meaning that for several important positions there is more than one Ramaphosa-aligned nominee, which would result in the vote being split, thus allowing the other side’s single nominee to win.
Ramaphosa’s slate has now confirmed its support of Eastern Cape Premier Oscar Mabuyane. Despite this, it doesn’t appear that they have convinced Ronald Lamola to formally drop out of the race.
If Lamola still stands and splits the Ramaphosa camp, it would work in Paul Mashatile’s favour.
The failure of the Ramaphosa camp to shore up their slate has been a tactical error that could hand victory to RET candidates.
Secretary general
No changes on this front. It still seems to be a three-horse race between Mbu Ntuli and Fikile Mbabula (both Ramaphosa aligned) as well as RET candidate Phumulo Masualle. While Masualle is probably the least popular of the three, if Ntuli and Mbalula again split the Ramaphosa camp’s vote, it would probably hand victory to another RET candidate in Masualle.
Chairperson
A similar story here. Ramaphosa’s slate refuses to give up on Gwede Mantashe, which has led to the Limpopo PEC’s rebellion against Ramaphosa because of their failure to accommodate their candidate – Stan Mathabatha. David Masondo has also not yet suggested that he will drop out, mainly because some of his supporters believe he could win.
Again, if Mantashe and Masondo split the Ramaphosa camp’s vote, victory will be secure for Mathabatha.
Treasurer general
This is now a four-horse race after Ramaphosa ally Gwen Ramokgopa was nominated from the floor. Again, there are two Ramaphosa allies in the race: she and Benjani Chauke, again splitting the vote — although the Ramaphosa camp is throwing their weight behind Ramokgopa.
This potential for another split vote brings the other two candidates firmly into contention — the non-factional Pule Mabe and the RET’s Mzwandele Masina, neither particularly good options.
First deputy secretary general
In a dramatic turn of events, Febe Potegieter shocked the Ramaphosa camp with a last-minute withdrawal from standing this position. The reasons for this are not yet known, but it was not a predetermined strategic move, leading to an impromptu decision to back Tina Joemat-Pettersson circulated quickly to Ramaphosa allies on their faction’s WhatsApp group while nominations were ongoing.
Joemat-Pettersson has a chequered history of scandals and has shifted between factions. She is now a Cyril-backer, and the ANC always tries to get someone from a minority race group on the ballot paper. She will contest the strong favourite for the position, Nomvula Mokonyane.
Second secretary general
This new position will also be contested by two women: Ramaphosa’s international relations adviser, Maropene Ramokgoba, and the largely unheralded opposing slate candidate, Ronalda Nalumango, who is the chair of the ANC’s interim leadership in the Western Cape.
Conclusion
It’s a nailbiter, and in the last 24 hours the reality has dawned at Nasrec that Ramaphosa may lose. On our numbers, he still has a slight advantage. But the fight between Mabuyane and Lamola hasn’t been helpful to the Ramaphosa campaign, and if Lamola’s Mpumalanga — anguished by Ramaphosa’s backing of Mabuyane — now swings to Mkhize, it may be that the RET can yet reclaim the reins of the ANC.
Mike Law is senior researcher at political risk consultancy, The Paternoster Group
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