After a span of 20 years, the opposition finally senses a genuine opportunity to unseat the incumbent, Türkiye President Recep Tayyib Erdoğan. (Mehmet Ali Ozcan/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
As Türkiye’s presidential and parliamentary elections approach, it is clear that Turkish politics is heading towards the most consequential moment in its recent history. After a span of 20 years, the opposition finally senses a genuine opportunity to unseat the incumbent, President Recep Tayyib Erdoğan, who finds himself in a precarious situation. His toughest challenge comes from a unified coalition of six opposition parties.
The country is grappling with a surge in inflation, which has sent shockwaves throughout the economy. Adding to the nation’s woes are twin earthquakes that have left a staggering 50 000 people dead, leaving the country in a state of mourning and disarray. As Türkiye navigates these turbulent times, the outcome of the upcoming elections will shape the country’s future trajectory and global standing. But the current highly polarised political climate has thrust Erdoğan into a particularly uncertain position. Having been at the helm since 2003 as the prime minister and later as president since 2014, Erdoğan was granted vast new powers after a failed coup attempt in 2016, consolidating his control over the nation. The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which he leads, has been running the show since November 2002.
The country is grappling with a trade deficit that continues to balloon, mounting public debt and a currency in tumult. Although official estimates are placing the annualised CPI at more than 50%, independent research organisations have a different version and they are painting a bleaker picture, with figures surpassing 112%. This situation has been aggravated by a catastrophic earthquake that rocked the country in February.
This scenario presents a hefty opportunity for the country’s opposition, which comprises six political parties, to mount a credible challenge to Erdoğan’s leadership and governance model. More than a year ago, the Nation’s Alliance was formed with the sole objective of defeating Erdoğan and transitioning the country to a “strengthened parliamentary system”. The “Table of Six” opposition alliance is led by the main opposition party, the People’s Republican Party (CHP), headed by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, and the Good Party (İYİ), led by Meral Aksener. The alliance includes two small splinter parties from the governing AKP, Deva and Gelecek, led by Ali Babacan and Ahmet Davutoglu, two former Erdoğan ministers. Rounding out the alliance are the Saadet Party, led by Temel Karamollaoglu, and the Democrat Party, led by the lesser-known politician Gultekin Uysal.
In early March, the alliance nominated Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who emerged as a surprise candidate to lead the coalition. Despite his perceived lack of charisma and experience in taking on the combative Erdoğan, Kılıçdaroğlu has been able to keep the alliance together — an amalgam of a diverse group of parties, including the secular left and right, Turkish nationalist and conservative constituencies. In a shrewd move to bolster its chances against the ruling bloc, the opposition alliance made a savvy choice by selecting Ekrem İmamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, the well-liked mayors of Istanbul and Ankara respectively, as its vice-presidential candidates, hoping to leverage their popularity and broaden its appeal to a larger segment of voters.
Kılıçdaroğlu’s selection as the joint candidate was not universally embraced, as some believed that the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara — who brought these cities under the control of the CHP for the first time in over 25 years — would have made stronger contenders. But Kılıçdaroğlu’s chances of winning the presidential election have recently improved, with him now holding a slight lead over Erdoğan after having trailed behind him for months in the opinion polls. But the opposition faces many challenges in its quest to outcompete Erdoğan.
A mild-mannered, uninspiring who is nicknamed the “Turkish Gandhi, Kılıçdaroğlu has a leadership style which is markedly different from Erdoğan’s charismatic persona. Kılıçdaroğlu’s quiet demeanour and tendency to make mistakes have made him an easy target for pro-government media outlets in Türkiye. His campaign was recently rocked by a scandal when a photograph, released by his own press advisers, showed him stepping on a prayer rug with his shoes on, a taboo in Islam that is deeply offensive to conservative voters in Türkiye. Despite Kılıçdaroğlu’s swift apology, the pro-government media and AKP politicians, including Erdoğan, seized on the incident to portray him as indifferent to the values of pious voters.
Erdoğan has skillfully exploited this perceived fragility, linking the opposition alliance to the political and economic instability associated with weak coalition governments in Türkiye during the 1990s. The Nation’s Alliance’s decision to nominate five party leaders and two popular mayors as vice-presidents, totaling seven individuals compared to Erdoğan’s one, further fuels concerns about the country’s governability under such a formula. To those who have grown accustomed to Erdoğan’s autocratic rule, Türkiye’s opposition may seem like a weak and ideologically diverse coalition.
This perception was magnified in early March when Meral Akşener dramatically split from the Nation’s Alliance over the nomination of Kılıçdaroğlu as their joint candidate. Erdoğan, a skilled politician, has exploited this perceived fragility, linking the opposition alliance to the political and economic instability associated with weak coalition governments in Türkiye during the 1990s.
Erdoğan is using the Nation’s Alliance’s formula of seven vice-presidents as a symbol of its fragility. Kılıçdaroğlu also enjoys the unofficial support of Türkiye’s pro-Kurdish HDP, which is contesting the parliamentary election under the banner of the Green Left party due to a court case linking them to Kurdish militants. But a decision by former centre-left party colleague, Muharrem Ince, to join the presidential race has caused a major setback to Kılıçdaroğlu’s chances of winning the first round of vote. Muharrem Ince, was the presidential candidate of the Republican People’s Party in 2018, but parted ways with Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu two years laters. He now leads the secular nationalist Homeland Party, though some have accused him of diluting the opposition vote and inadvertently aiding Erdoğan’s cause.
In Türkiye, a political party must secure 7% of the vote or be part of an alliance that achieves the threshold to enter the 600-seat parliament. This is why alliances have gained so much importance, and the six-party opposition is advocating to change this rule as one of their proposed reforms. Turkish voters select party lists instead of individual candidates, and the number of seats is determined by the proportion of votes received by each party, rather than the number of alliances. There is no longer a position of prime minister. Instead, the president selects the government, and if his People’s Alliance fails to secure a majority in parliament, he may find it challenging to rule with the same level of control as he does now.
The Nation’s Alliance, led by Kılıçdaroğlu, seeks to revive Türkiye’s parliamentary system and revamp the presidency by eliminating the president’s authority to veto legislation, breaking their connections to political parties, and making the position electable every seven years. In addition, the six-party coalition aims to reinvigorate the country’s efforts to become a member of the European Union and mend the strained relationship with the United States that deteriorated under Erdoğan’s rule.
They have committed to reducing inflation to below 10% within two years and encouraging Syrian refugees to return home voluntarily. If the presidential elections move to a second round, it could become anyone’s game. Erdoğan has previously won in the first round with a large margin in both 2014 and 2018. But his inability to do so this time may be interpreted as a sign of weakness and prompt anti-Erdoğan voters to unite behind Kılıçdaroğlu in the second round. On the other hand, the second round may not be all positive news for Kılıçdaroğlu, as he will have to negotiate with his long-time rival, Muharrem Ince, to secure a direct endorsement. But the price of such an endorsement may be too high for Kılıçdaroğlu. Recently, Ince has been severely critical of the Nation’s Alliance and has called on Kılıçdaroğlu and Akşener to abandon their conservative alliance partners in favour of a “principled alliance” between his Homeland Party, İYİ party, and CHP. Despite the potential for a shift in power, the road ahead is uncertain, and the political landscape remains fraught with tension and polarisation.
This moment in political history marks a pivotal juncture for the country, because the outcome of these elections will undoubtedly have far-reaching consequences for the future of Türkiye’s governance and international standing.
Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan. He qualified as a physician from Dow Medical University in 1991 and has a master’s degree in international relations from Karachi University.
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Mail & Guardian.