Ghosting: Rumours that former ANC and South African president Jacob Zuma will not be campaigning for the ANC for next year’s elections have caused consternation. Photo: Darren Stewart/Gallo Images
Jacob Zuma’s recent snub of the ANC has drawn fears that he could be preparing to announce that he will campaign for another political party for next year’s elections, according to insiders.
The former ANC and national president, considered one of the party’s biggest drawcards in KwaZulu-Natal going into the elections, is believed to be behind a political party which has emerged in the province and is set to contest the poll.
ANC insiders say this has “rattled” the top party officials as Zuma has been unwilling to meet the ANC leadership to discuss the issue.
The Mail & Guardian previously reported that tension between him and the national leadership could hamper the party’s election plans.
The ANC had originally planned to use Zuma in its campaign in KwaZulu-Natal, the second-biggest province, which it stands to lose.
An insider close to Luthuli House said efforts by secretary general Fikile Mbalula to meet Zuma had been thwarted on three occasions. This was despite Zuma’s election as provincial chair of the South African National Civic Organisation (Sanco), which is an ally of the ANC.
“The only person who former president Zuma has met from national is Mdu [Mdumiseni Ntuli]. The officials have not met with him and he does not want to meet with them.
“The last time he met [ANC KwaZulu-Natal secretary] Bheki Mtolo was when they were elected.
“This demonstrates that he has no appetite to engage with them at any level,” the ANC insider said.
Zuma is said to have been elected in absentia by the Sanco leadership in an attempt to legitimise the conference. Sanco has been split between two factions for several years.
Mbalula told the M&G that party officials are aware of the speculation around Zuma. “We have also heard those rumours about the party in the name of uMkhonto weSizwe, which we are also challenging in terms of its registration, because Umkhonto weSizwe is a trademark of the ANC.
“We have heard rumours to the effect that this has got to do with president Zuma. People drop names and it’s not a matter we can entertain at the present moment until it happens,” Mbalula said.
However party insiders said the ANC leadership has been panicked by the silent treatment meted out by the former leader.
“The national office bearers are anticipating that comrade Zuma might make an announcement soon, or those around him, that he is joining another party.
“There were also fears that he might use Sanco to destabilise President Cyril Ramaphosa.
“There is definitely an air of uncertainty,” the insider said.
uMkhonto weSizwe was registered with the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa as a political party in September.
The party is said to be looking at taking votes from the ANC and EFF.
In 2019, Zuma was implicated in the formation of the African Transformation Movement (ATM).
The ANC investigated the matter but could not find anyone to substantiate the claims.
It was said Zuma and Ace Magashule, who was then ANC secretary general, had been party to the formation of ATM in an attempt to destabilise the Ramaphosa-led ANC.
Another insider said that Mbalula was not the only ANC leader in the top seven who had made attempts to meet Zuma.
They claim Mbalula’s deputy and former Zuma loyalist Nomvula Mokonyane had also been snubbed by Zuma.
“It’s worrying when the DSG [deputy secretary general] is in the same boat as Mbalula.
“It tells us that we cannot count on him to campaign for the ANC but it also tells us that he may be planning something — you cannot put anything past the old man,” the national executive committee member said.
The party is facing another difficulty as former president Thabo Mbeki is unlikely to campaign for it for next year’s vote.
The ANC is yet to discuss the matter with Mbeki but has previously expressed doubt about whether he would campaign.
In an interview with EWN, Mbeki, who has publicly criticised Ramaphosa, called into question the party’s ability to follow through on the commitment to renew itself, adding he refused to mislead people.
“When you say I must go campaigning next year, to tell people to vote ANC, how am I going to do that when I know very well that the branch of the ANC in this constituency is led by a criminal?
“It’s not possible to go say vote ANC, to vote for a criminal,” Mbeki said during the interview.
Zuma’s relationship with the ANC leadership soured during the state capture inquiry, which led to his incarceration after he failed to comply with the constitutional court’s order to appear before the Zondo commission.
He is also said to have been disgruntled by the decision of some ANC leaders not to support him during his corruption trial.
“Zuma thinks that we should show support in court but also help pay his legal fees and that cannot be done if we are serious about renewal,” one provincial leader said.
Zuma, previously a familiar face at NEC meetings, has not attended them for several months.
A recent survey by the Social Research Foundation pegged the ANC’s potential share of the vote next year at 45%.
The party has deployed KwaZulu-Natal heavyweights Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma and Zweli Mkhize to boost its election machinery in KwaZulu-Natal.
The IFP — the ANC’s biggest rival in the province — is in pole position to regain the majority when the country goes to the polls next year.
All this has left senior ANC officials reluctant to cause any further instability in the province.
The Social Research Foundation report on South Africa’s political state of play for October showed a decline in support for the governing party in a sample of about 1 500 people in polls it conducted in March and in July last year.
It is the latest in a number of opinion polls ahead of the elections which show the ANC faces the potential of losing its majority and being forced into a coalition government.
The party took 57% of the vote nationally in 2019, down from 62% in the 2014 elections, a trend that continued at local government level in 2021.
According to the latest report, 45% of respondents indicated that they would vote for the ANC, if the elections were to take place today, under a voter turnout of 66%.
This was a drop in support from both March (52%) and from last July, when 50% of respondents said they would vote for the ANC.