After a brief hiatus in December, the country is again in the grips of load-shedding. File photo
Eskom expects more rolling blackouts through to December 2024, which could hamper the governing party’s campaign success ahead of this year’s general election.
In its latest Generation Adequacy Report, Eskom has projected a grim outlook for much of 2024 and early 2025, characterised by escalating demand and persistently high levels of unplanned load-shedding, posing a significant threat to the system’s overall stability.
For 2024, Eskom predicts electricity shortfalls surpassing 4 000 megawatts in most scenarios, which will mean rolling blackouts are needed.
There is widespread criticism for the party and the minister of mineral resources and energy, Gwede Mantashe, and ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula, who gave promising statements about load-shedding ending by December, which didn’t happen.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) has criticised the ANC for failing to end load-shedding. DA shadow minister of electricity, Samantha Graham-Maré, said in September in parliament that electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa’s short term in the portfolio had seen the worst load-shedding period since 2013.
She added that Ramokgopa lied to South Africans that “a turning point in the power crisis had been reached” and “load-shedding won’t be rising to higher levels”.
“Ramokgopa made misleading claims in July 2023 to the effect that the ‘recovery’ in generation capacity was sustainable and would last until the end of winter. He also sunk the country to new load-shedding depths, with estimates showing that load-shedding in 2023 was worse than the previous eight years combined,” she said.
She added that Ramokgopa blew through Eskom’s diesel budget to maintain the misleading illusion that generation was stabilising.
The utility, which announced the return of load-shedding on the first day of 2024 after a brief hiatus, has faced criticism for not being able to keep power cuts at bay. This is despite Eskom being able to curb load-shedding for 14 days during the festive season.
An Eskom source told the Mail & Guardian that the utility is under pressure to ensure that it decreases load-shedding during May – the month elections are supposed to be held.
“Elections are meant to change the game altogether. We expect to receive more funding from the government to cover the expenses we will incur during May to ensure that we keep the lights on during the election month,” the source said.
In a response, Eskom said it would only suspend load-shedding if it is able to meet demand.
“Eskom has no plan to suspend load-shedding during elections’ month since load-shedding is not implemented as a selective response but as a response to protect the grid from collapse. Load-shedding can only be suspended if supply meets the country’s electricity demand,” Eskom told the M&G.
Ramokgopa is anticipating the return of all Kusile units, which went offline after they were impacted by the collapse of stacks at the power station a year ago. Bringing back these units could prevent the country from experiencing higher than stage two load-shedding.
However, the Eskom fleet’s average energy availability remains slightly above 55%, falling short of the targeted 60% by March of this year and the aimed 65% by the end of March next year. Acquiring generating capacity from independent power producers has encountered delays because of a lack of grid capacity to accommodate the extra energy.
Last week, Eskom announced that it has added unit 5 of Kusile power station on the grid for the first time.
Fuelled by the apprehension of potential political losses, the ANC has taken decisive measures prompted by concerns about its electoral standing.
The ANC has to face the consequences of its inability to oversee grid efficiently. Power outages have emerged as a significant concern for voters — as load-shedding has intensified, the party’s backing has declined nationally, an internal survey reveals.
Eskom’s load-shedding is set to be a continued headache for the ANC as the survey showed a reluctance among South Africans to support it in the upcoming elections because of the power cuts.
Approaching a pivotal election in 2024 — three decades since its initial ascent to power in South Africa’s inaugural democratic election — the administration led by President Cyril Ramaphosa has yet again fallen short in resolving the nation’s energy challenges.
This failure is poised to adversely impact the party’s prospects in the upcoming election, as pre-blackout polls indicate a mere 40% support.
According to data released last month by a load-shedding app EskomSePush, there was an 86% increase in load-shedding in 2023 compared to any previous year, with May being the worst month of the year. It added that this amounts to 407 746 minutes without electricity. The app added that the country spent 80 days on stage four, 74 days on stage three and 45 days on stage six.
Since assuming office in March last year, Ramokgopa has predominantly concentrated on enhancing the efficiency of Eskom’s power stations. But his efforts have yielded limited success.
Two ANC National Executive Committee sources told the M&G that Ramokgopa and minister of public enterprise Pravin Gordhan have been asked to address load-shedding as it is being used against the party during the campaigning period, stripping it of its confidence during by-elections.
But, without the powers to implement and influence policy, Ramokgopa has been left powerless to do anything about the power to improve the load-shedding crisis.
Last year, his office told the M&G that Ramokgopa could not make any decisions, especially around importing electricity from Mozambique, because red tape between him and Gordhan rendered him powerless.
The M&G previously reported that Ramokgopa again called for the government to give him more powers over the Eskom board so that he can execute his duties after he was questioned why he has not been able to get power from Mozambique.
Ramokgopa’s spokesperson, Tsakane Khambane, said that the delay was caused by the government’s procurement processes.
“Because Eskom is a governmental institution, it is tied to Public Finance Management Act rules. It does not have the flexibility to go and procure megawatts without accountability, which is why it has to go through a process to acquire these megawatts. Eskom is the one talking to EDM [Electricidade de Moçambique, the Mozambique power utility] because it has the ability to house the megawatts that we receive,” she said.
Much of the electricity minister’s plan to ease load-shedding included ramping up the use of Eskom’s emergency diesel-powered generators, improving the performance of the power utility’s five worst-performing power stations and exempting some national key points from power blackouts.
But these interventions have placed the utility under financial pressure, further from its economic sustainability and freedom goals.
Eskom faces financial challenges because it spends on diesel which is primarily used to mitigate higher stages of blackouts resulting from breakdowns in its coal-fired power plants.
The utility operates open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) fuelled by diesel, designated for emergencies or peak demand periods. For the fiscal year ending March 2024, Eskom allocated approximately R27.9 billion for diesel expenses.
According to its financial documents released early in December, Eskom anticipates exceeding this budget, projecting a diesel spending of R32.2 billion. This indicates a shortfall of R4.3 billion, potentially necessitating Eskom to seek financial assistance from the government to cover the overrun in the diesel budget.
Eskom attributes its reliance on OCGTs and diesel budget overruns to persist until there is an improvement in the performance of its power plants and South Africa’s overall electricity generation capacity.
The increased reliance on OCGTs is a response to 2023 being marked as a particularly challenging year for power disruptions, with more than 280 blackout days recorded, a significant escalation compared to the 205 days reported in 2022.
In a press release, Investec investment strategist Ayan Ghosh estimated earlier this year that load-shedding cost the economy R300 billion in 2022, taking 5% from GDP in that year alone.
In its occasional notes in June, the reserve bank projected that the impact of load-shedding could potentially reduce GDP growth by two percentage points this year.
It also predicted a modest 0.3% real GDP growth for 2023. However, in the absence of ongoing power outages, the bank expressed confidence that the economy could achieve a growth rate of 2.3%.
The government provided Eskom with a R254 billion bailout spread over three years, accompanied by stringent conditions. These conditions include the power utility implementing cost-saving measures and refraining from acquiring new loans.
To prevent a more significant electricity supply gap, Eskom aims to extend the operational life of units at its coal-fired power stations beyond their scheduled retirement dates.
Eskom continues to grapple with corruption, crime and sabotage which pose significant challenges to the utility’s operations.
The process of restructuring Eskom into three distinct entities — generation, transmission and distribution — initiated in 2019 has been slow but is gaining momentum.
Ramokgopa expected the grid to stabilise while companies consuming large amounts of energy closed their doors during the holidays, allowing Eskom to do maintenance work.
Sources in the Eskom board have expressed discontent with the electricity minister, who has been criticised for speaking out of tune with the utility, often causing the board to do damage control.
“The minister is passionate about the job, and has some knowledge about the utility, but often what he communicates ends up placing us in trouble because it is in contrast with what the data explains, which ends up making us look incompetent, we have communicated with him about this issue before,” the source said.