Many political parties and the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) have focused on mobilising the voters — to the exclusion of children. But children have the right to democratic participation.
For the first time since 1994, voters will be restricted to their home polling station when they cast their ballots in the 29 May elections.
This is one of a number of changes introduced by the Electoral Commission of South Africa as the country prepares for what looks set to be a hotly contested vote.
In previous elections, voters could make use of any voting station in their province on election day.
Tessa Dooms, director of programmes at the nonprofit Rivonia Circle, said the change was made for logistical reasons, noting that the IEC needed to know the exact number of ballots they should supply to voting stations, so they did not run out.
If, for example, you will be in Gauteng on the day of the election, and you are registered to vote in the Eastern Cape, you will not be able to vote in the national ballot, Dooms said.
You can only cast your ballot at the voting station where you are registered. You will not be allowed to vote at any other station, even within your province.
“It is important that you know where your actual voting station is located and know whether or not you are going to be close to that voting station on 29 May,” Dooms said.
“Otherwise, you might stand in a queue for two hours and find out you are 100km from your voting station.”
If people were not aware of these changes, it would mean that fewer people will be able to vote. Those who want to vote, but will be away from their voting stations, should inform the IEC by 22 May about where they will be on the day of the elections.
“We need to understand that voters are the most important participants in these elections. There is no real election without people who vote,” she said. “As voters, we need to have conversations with each other about showing up in these elections.”
Dooms also mentioned changes voters would see on the new ballots.
Previously, voters were provided with two ballot papers — one for national candidates and another for the provincial election.
This year they will get three.
The first is a national ballot, which remains the same as it was in previous elections. This ballot will only include political parties.
However, in this election the national ballot is only for 200 of the 400 seats in parliament.
The other 200, which will be on the second ballot, will be for regional candidates vying for seats in parliament. The regional ballot — which will include independent candidates — will differ from province to province.
There are 16 independent candidates standing in the national elections.
Voters will use the third ballot to elect candidates to fill seats in provincial legislatures.
Dooms was reluctant to speak about who would come out on top in hotly contested provinces. She did, however, say that the Democratic Alliance (DA) majority in the Western Cape had been shaky for a long time.
The DA has never managed to maintain an overwhelming majority in the province in the same way the ANC has in some of its strongholds, she noted.
In the 2019 general elections, the DA won the Western Cape by 55.45%, down from 59.38% in 2014.
“In the last elections, [the DA] moved down by 4% to 5% and, if it moves down by the same percent in the province, it will be coalition time,” Dooms said.
“The voter turnout is important — the DA has benefitted from turning out its base more than the general population.”
For the past 15 years, black and coloured voters have had few options in the Western Cape, Dooms added.
With more independent candidates having entered the fray, the DA could be in for a tough time, she said.
“You have parties like ActionSA, Rise Mzansi, the Economic Freedom Fighters.
“All of those parties can eat into the bases of bigger parties already there,” Dooms added, noting that a higher black and coloured turnout in the Western Cape could see the DA dip below 50%.
KwaZulu-Natal has the second-biggest voting population after Gauteng and has played a considerable role in cementing the ANC’s electoral prospects in the past. In the 2019 elections, 20% of all the ANC’s vote came from KwaZulu-Natal.
But former president Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party is expected to dent the ANC’s support in the province.
“When you have a fracture, like you have with uMkhonto weSizwe, you are still dealing with the ANC. The MK party is a faction of the ANC that has broken away and that is going to have a substantive effect on the ANC,” Dooms said.
“The question, having spent some time in KZN recently, is will people use the MK party as a protest vote? A protest vote in South Africa is usually against the ANC.”
In the past, voters could just stay at home to protest the failings of the ANC, Dooms said. Now they can do so with their ballots, she said, noting that the MK party’s message has focused on punishing Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC.
“And I think even people who are not ANC supporters — and those who had been disgruntled and moved away — are enticed by the idea that there is a weapon we can use to give the ANC a wake-up call and punish the ANC. I think those are the things that can tip the scale for the MK party,” Doom said.
The chance of any party winning an outright majority in Gauteng is almost zero, making a coalition government the most likely outcome.
New players would focus on Gauteng because it is the biggest voting population. If a party wanted to shift the needle, Gauteng was a good place to do it, she said.
Given complaints about the state of services in the province, Gauteng would be highly contested.
“The provincial decay of the metros has had a crippling effect on the way people in Gauteng have been experiencing their lives.”
Forty-five candidates are vying for seats in the Gauteng legislature, two of which are independents.
“Of those, 29 parties are new,” independent elections analyst Michael Atkins noted, adding that only 16 new parties are contesting in KwaZulu-Natal.
The number of seats in the Gauteng legislature has been changed from 73 to 80 to reflect the population growth, giving smaller parties a greater chance, according to Atkins.
Speaking about the regional ballot he questioned why many parties on the national ballot are not contesting on the regional level.
“[T]hey are largely losing the opportunity to gain votes. Even if it is a handful of votes, they all count towards the overall seat allocation.”
Atkins said, even if the DA loses the majority in the Western Cape, its partners in the Multi-Party Charter will allow the party to form a government in the province.
On KwaZulu-Natal, Atkins said it will be interesting to see what happens after the elections, given there doesn’t appear to be a clear winner.
“The question I have is whether former ANC voters observing the ANC-MK party situation might decide to go back and vote for the Inkatha Freedom Party.”