The strengths, weaknesses and form of the 16 nations=20 competing in the Rugby World Cup by Jon Swift
Pool A
Holders Australia and South Africa, who meet in the opening=20 fixture at Newlands next Thursday, are favourites to go=20 through to the last 16.
Unbeaten since June 1994. But they only edged Italy 23-20=20 in the first game of a two-test series and showed some=20 jitters in the second Test against Argentina before running=20 out 30-13 winners. Favoured to win pool.
Strengths: Well drilled with abundant ball skills in all=20 departments. Powerful pack with fine lineout jumpers.
Weaknesses: Vulnerable when not dictating the pattern of=20
Pool games: South Africa in Cape Town (May 25); Canada in=20 Port Elizabeth (May 31); Romania in Stellenbosch (June 3).
Canada are rank outsiders to make the quarterfinals, but=20 have recent victories over Uruguay and Fiji and a close 29- 26 defeat at the hands of Argentina before the 73-7=20 thrashing by the All Blacks.
Strengths: Reasonable pack and Christian Stewart in=20 midfield. Led by United Kingdom-based flyhalf Gareth Rees.
Weaknesses: Tendency to over-commit and leave gaps.
Pool games: Romania in PE (May 26); Australia in PE (May=20 31); South Africa in PE (June 3).
Have lost their last six internationals — to Wales, Italy,=20 England, France, Scotland and Japan. Unlikely to advance=20 beyond pool games.
Strengths: Unpredictable French-style approach to the game.
Weaknesses: Lacking many of the key players of the 1980s.=20 Redevelopment hampered by political upheaval.
Pool games: Canada in PE (May 26); South Africa in Cape=20 Town (May 30); Australia in Stellenbosch (June 3).
SOUTH AFRICA
Finally starting to regain the confidence of one of the=20 world’s premier nations and settling into the winning=20 ethos. Favourites to make the last 16, but the game against=20 Australia remains vital. A loss in the opening match in=20 Cape Town points to a probably quarterfinal meeting against=20 England, a side which can be beaten on South African=20
Strengths: Home ground advantage. Powerful pack and fast=20 loose forwards. Sparkling backline players with real pace.
Weaknesses: Indiscipline. Combinations yet to be settled=20 on. Lack of depth in front row and a seeming inability to=20 dominate in the lineout.
Pool games: Australia in Cape Town (May 25); Romania in=20 Cape Town (May 30); Canada in PE (June 3).
Probable pool winner: Australia
Probable Runners-up: South Africa
Best Outside Chance: Canada
Pool B
Five Nations champions and World Cup runners-up in 1991,=20 England, are way and above the best side of record in this=20 group. But on the fast, hard grounds, an upset is always=20 possible. Argentina are favourites to join them in the last=20
A good mixture of youth and experience, pace and power.=20 Administrative problems have hampered their build-up, but=20 had a good finish to their tour of Australia.
Strengths: Familiar with South African conditions. Powerful=20 pack. Clever, inventive threequarters.
Weaknesses: Indiscipline and sometimes strange=20 interpretation of the rules. Somewhat lacking in the loose=20 and at lineout.
Pool games: England in Durban (May 27); Western Samoa in=20 East London (May 30); Italy in East London (June 4).
An experienced and proven combination and even closer-knit=20 after the stripping and reinstatement of Will Carling as=20 captain. Among the best scrummagers of the ball in world=20 rugby. Stick to a tested pattern with Rob Andrew dictating=20 terms with the boot.
Strengths: Huge experience. Forward power and lineout=20 skills. Fine ball retention. Devastating in the tight- loose. Good threequarters.
Weaknesses: General lack of creativity and ability to open=20 the game out. Big loose forwards lack real pace on hard=20
Pool games: Argentina in Durban (May 27); Italy in Durban=20 (May 31); Western Samoa in Durban (June 4).
Perhaps the best outside bet for a quarterfinal spot in the=20 tournament. Italy, from the days of the great Marco=20 Bollesan in the 1960s, have always had good forwards. Came=20 close to beating Australia and recorded their first win=20 over a Five Nations country by beating Ireland 22-12 in=20 their final warm-up game.
Strengths: Good forwards and well developed handling=20 skills. South African-born Marcello Cuttita has brought a=20 width to the threequarters.
Weaknesses: Need to believe they can win. Bulk of the side=20 strangers to South African conditions and crowds.
Pool games: Western Samoa in East London (May 27); England=20 in Durban (May 31); Argentina in East London (June 4).
WESTERN SAMOA
Devastating tacklers and hard scrummagers, the men from=20 Manu Samoa are capable of beating anyone on their day.=20 Coming off crushing losses to Australia (73-3) and South=20 Africa (60-8). Probably not the threat they were in 1991.
Strengths: Expansive approach to the game. Good forwards=20 and devastating tackling.
Weaknesses: Short of really good lineout forwards. Capable=20 of huge defensive lapses.
Pool games: Italy in East London (May 27); Argentina in=20 East London (May 30); England in Durban (June 4).
Probable Pool Winner: England
Probable Runners-up: Argentina
Best Outside Chance: Italy
Pool C
Not an easy pool but dominated by 1987 winners New Zealand.=20 Ireland and Wales have both had their problems as a force=20 in world rugby over the past few years. Wales having to=20 qualify for a place. Ireland’s recent loss to Italy does=20 not point to great form. All three should beat Japan, the=20 tournament’s rank outsiders in the betting, with little=20 real difficulty.
An enigmatic rugby nation capable of massive upsets and=20 disheartening defeats. One of the last bastions of=20 amateurism at top level. A poor Five Nations championship=20 and a loss to Italy point to doubtful form but should –=20 just — edge out Wales for a spot in the last 16.
Strengths: Good forwards and a tradition of innovative half=20 backs and threequarters. Capable of lifting their game to=20 the big occasion.
Weaknesses: Not the well-drilled unit of Willie John=20 McBride’s days. Psychologically down after only wins over=20 the United States and Wales in the last year.
Pool games: New Zealand in Johannesburg (May 27); Japan in=20 Bloemfontein (May 31); Wales in Johannesburg (June 4).
Despite a heartening 34-21 win over Romania — including=20 five tries — the Asian representatives can have little=20 real chance of advancing.
Strengths: The inclusion of four foreign-born players in=20 the squad and the numbers of players from recognised rugby=20 countries has lifted the game. Highly mobile.
Weaknesses: Lack of experience at this level and no really=20 big forwards.
Pool games: Wales in Bloemfontein (May 27); Ireland in=20 Bloemfontein (May 31); New Zealand in Bloemfontein (June=20
NEW ZEALAND
Runaway favourites to advance. Their game always centres on=20 the forwards and the feared ”All Black Blanket” of an=20 eight-man machine is only now starting to work again after=20 a period of mediocre performances. Lost 20-16 to Australia=20 after a series win over South Africa but then crushed=20 Canada 73-7 in their final warm-up. Winners in 1987, the=20 All Blacks are strong contenders to repeat their triumph.
Strengths: Superbly drilled forwards and a determination to=20 break the advantage line. Great ball retention and strong=20
Weaknesses: No kicker in the Grant Fox mould.
Pool games: Ireland in Johannesburg (May 27); Wales in=20 Johannesburg (May 31); Japan in Bloemfontein (June 4).
Will fight it out with Ireland for a spot alongside New=20 Zealand. Psychologically on a low as qualifiers and coming=20 off a sorry Five Nations championship and ravaged by=20 defections to league. Internal wrangles see a new coach and=20 Mike Hall replacing Ieuen Evans as captain.
Strengths: Immense pride and superb backs.
Weaknesses: No real depth among the forwards.
Pool Games: Japan in Bloemfontein (May 27); New Zealand in=20 Johannesburg (May 31); Ireland in Johannesburg (June 4).
Probable Pool Winner: New Zealand
Probable Runners-up: Ireland=20
Best Outside Chance: Wales
Pool D
On the face of it, a two-way race between France and=20 Scotland to see who tops the pool. Second spot means a=20 meeting with New Zealand in the quarterfinals with the=20 winner having an easier passage — probably against=20 Ireland. Despite some disappointing results of late, France=20 are favourites to win the group.
Beautiful to watch in the way they express themselves at=20 best, the French can be equally disappointing on a bad day.=20 Series winners against South Africa in this country, they=20 have always revelled in the conditions which allow for=20 running, innovative rugby. A shock loss to Scotland was=20 followed by wins over Ireland and Romania. Ignore the=20 French at your peril.
Strengths: Fine pack and perhaps the most innovative backs=20 in the world. At best an almost impossible side to beat –=20 as New Zealand found in losing a series at home last year.
Weaknesses: Temperament and frequent selectorial boobs.
Pool games: Tonga in Pretoria (May 26); Ivory Coast in=20 Rustenburg (May 30); Scotland in Pretoria (June 3).
IVORY COAST
Surprisingly shot Namibia out of the second African spot –=20 South Africa has the other. Inclusion a huge boost for=20 rugby in Africa. A disappointing tour of South Africa,=20 losing 97-7 to Northern Transvaal, 67-10 to Western=20 Transvaal and 18-0 to Stellaland. Nicknamed the Elephants,=20 certain to be herded out of the competition at the=20 completion of the pool games.
Strengths: A willingness to run the ball, stemming from=20 French coaching influence.
Weaknesses: Too many to itemise. Perhaps a bridge too far,=20 too soon.
Pool games: Scotland in Rustenburg (May 26); France in=20 Rustenburg (May 30); Tonga in Rustenburg (June 3).
Worthy winners over France in the Five Nations and=20 contestants for the Triple Crown all the way through to the=20 24-12 Calcutta Cup defeat in March. Easy warm-up wins over=20 Romania (49-16) and Spain (62-7). Will be looking to repeat=20 their win over France to avoid facing New Zealand in the=20 quarterfinals. A settled and largely experienced side under=20 Gavin Hastings, but perhaps short of pace for the South=20 African fields.
Strengths: A collected and focused side. Good forwards and=20 backs willing to run. Gavin Hastings’ boot.
Weaknesses: Lacking real pace among the forwards.
Pool games: Ivory Coast in Rustenburg (May 26); Tonga in=20 Pretoria (May 30); France in Pretoria (June 3).
The Sea Eagles ousted Fiji with a 12-0 win in the=20 qualifiers. Solid playing based on Australasian game. Lack=20 of numbers means a lack of real depth in international=20 calibre players. Solid wins (47-16 and 25-16) over Japan in=20 build-up but a crushing 75-5 defeat at the hands of=20 Auckland. Unlikely to advance.
Strengths: Enthusiasm and open approach to the game.
Weaknesses: Lacking depth and short of big forwards in the=20
Pool games: France in Pretoria (May 26); Scotland in=20 Pretoria (May 30); Ivory Coast in Rustenburg (June 3).
Probable Pool Winner: France
Probable Runners-up: Scotland
Best Outside Chance: Tonga
Probable quarterfinals Durban (June 10):=09France v Ireland Johannesburg (June 10): Australia v Argentina Cape Town (June 11): England v South Africa Pretoria (June 11): New Zealand v Scotland
Probable semifinals Durban (June 17): France v Australia Cape Town (June 18): South Africa v New Zealand