While Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe tries to quash all discussion about a successor, there are candidates waiting in the wings, reports Julius Zava
Since Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe announced on television earlier this year that he will soon retire, identifying a successor has become a major topic of debate in Zimbabwe.
But there is a succession vacuum which political observers blame on Mugabe’s leadership style. Mugabe, a Marxist-Leninist, had ambitions to establish a one-party state in the 1980s, and heavily aligned himself with North Korea, former communist Eastern Europe, China and Cuba, all places where the idea of the “dear leader” was cherished.
In 1987, Zimbabwe’s constitution was amended to create structures to entrench the effective one- party state, including the executive presidency, which gave Mugabe extraordinary power.
Since the 1987 unity accord between Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party and Joshua Nkomo’s now-defunct Zapu that brought an end to the civil war which, from 1981 to 1987 left more than 5 000 dead and devastated the Matebeleland province, Mugabe has become extremely powerful through Zanu-PF’s Soviet-styled Politburo.
The Politburo is mainly composed of Cabinet ministers and effectively rules the country. Its members are appointed solely by Mugabe at his discretion.
Professor Welshman Ncube, a constitutional lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe and a political analyst, says there is a succession vacuum in Zanu- PF and the country, because “the two vice- presidents, Simon Muzenda and Joshua Nkomo, are too old and ignorant — they cannot be an alternative to Mugabe. They are not qualified for the job.”
Ncube says the Politburo has been used by Mugabe to marginalise “intelligent ministers, because to be near to Mugabe you have to be a puppet. If the ruling party had a policy of giving people positions on the basis of merit alone, then you would obviously have competent people around Mugabe.”
As it is, he says, “Mugabe has perfected [the] politics of patronage.” Succession debates have been ruthlessly quashed within the party in its congresses, most notably earlier this year.
Mugabe himself says the time will come when he will retire, “and perhaps it is not far off and then young ones will take our place”. But unlike South African President Nelson Mandela who is punting Thabo Mbeki to replace him, Mugabe does not want to groom a future president. His attitude is that the debate on succession should surface when he has left.
Mugabe says a leader “must be chosen by the people, not groomed. I can groom ministers, but I cannot groom a president. People must groom their president.”
Many observers think Mugabe has destroyed all potential leaders. Dr John Makumbe, a University of Zimbabwe political scientist, says potential presidents have been reduced to tribal provincial leaders and no individual, other than Mugabe himself, cultivates a national image.
“The result is that Zanu-PF is now a conglomerate of provincial factions … The old guard want Mugabe to go on because they fear that if he goes, the various tribal factions will be at war,” says Makumbe.
But despite Mugabe’s efforts to marginalise opponents within and outside the party, a few remain visible.
The most notable is Dr Eddison Zvobgo, Zanu-PF’s legal secretary and a shrewd politician. He has, since the 1980s, been identified as having presidential ambitions.
Zvobgo, leader of the majority Karanga tribe of the Masvingo Province in the south, has tried to lead the succession debate. Giving his “personal views” to parliamentarians at a function earlier this year, Zvobgo said the debate should “be placed on the national agenda for the 21st century”.
Zvobgo said the executive presidency has dictatorial powers and that future presidents should be limited to two terms only. Mugabe’s term is unlimited. Zvobgo also wants the electoral bodies to be independent, and not to be appointed by the president.
Ironically, Zvobgo was the architect of the present amended constitution when he was the minister of justice.
Another presidential hopeful is Minister of Home Affairs Dumiso Dabengwa, who is tipped to succeed Nkomo as leader of the Ndebele. Nkomo has expressed a desire to retire following a recent operation in a Cape Town clinic.
Dabengwa, a former Zapu intelligence supremo, is another well-known politician who could eventually — and ironically — fill Mugabe’s shoes. In 1982, after being acquitted by Zimbabwe’s courts of treason, Mugabe sent Dabenwga back to jail, only releasing him in 1986.
Dabengwa has since risen steadily to become a Cabinet and Politburo member. He has leadership qualities and is well respected. He is also a former ruling-party chairman in Matebeleland.
Minister of Lands and Water Development Kumbirai Kangai is yet another contender. He is the current party chief in the eastern Manicaland province, which is dominated by the Manyika tribe. Although the party, like in Masvingo, is facing bitter internal feuding, Kangai has survived since the liberation war in the 1970s. He was a member of the High Command (Dare Rechimurenga) of Zanu-PF’s liberation movement.
Emmersor Mnangwagwa, the current minister of justice, is another contender. He is the party supremo of the Midlands province, but his record is tarnished by his years as minister of national security during the Matebeleland skirmishes. The Central Intelligence Organisation committed many atrocities during his tenure.
The incumbent Minister of National Security Dr Sydney Sekeramayi, an ex-guerrilla who has been credited with reforming the CIO, is another dark horse who could win the top post.