Alliances are unlikely to make opposition parties more powerful against the ANC, writes a sceptical Marion Edmunds
Opposition parties have begun flirting with each other in the post-election political lull, in an attempt to find common ground and sharper definition against the ANC, before the1999 ballot.
And while meetings between political parties lead to speculation of alliances, it is clear that opposition parties cannot form a consistent opposition bloc on the national level because they do not have common ambitions, their supporters do not like each other, and they do not command enough black votes.
The most high-profile wooing this week was conducted by FW de Klerk who travelled as far out of his way as Ulundi to talk to Inkatha leader Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi about provincial power-sharing in the Kwazulu-Natal cabinet.
This meeting comes following a thaw in relations between Inkatha and the ANC, and it may be that De Klerk is trying to stop Buthelezi’s drift to the ANC kraal, even if only publicly, and to remind him that they have a great deal in common: free market principles, family values, federalism and skeletons in the apartheid cupboard. The talks were driven too by the dynamics of Kwazulu-Natal where Inkatha has a slim majority and may need anti-ANC alliance partners to consolidate its power, if not now, definitely in the future.
De Klerk’s visit, as leader of the opposition in the national Parliament, is significant. It is consistent with the NP’s stated desire to draw opposition groupings into its laager, and to form a brave new multi-racial movement which could challenge the ANC, if not beat it eventually at the polls. For this, De Klerk needs like-minded players and the black vote.
NP secretary general Roelf Meyer said this week that it was far too early to speculate along those lines, and that the party was merely looking at common interests at this point, not alliances. To counterweight the Inkatha visit, he said the NP would also be hoping to work more closely with the Democratic Party in future.
“It would be natural for us and the DP to work together on economic policy, for example, where policies are so similar … all parties in the opposition are talking at the moment and there is an understanding that there is a need to restructure opposition politics” Meyer said.
Political commentator Professor Robert Schrire of the University of Cape Town says that there will be no point to an alliance unless the parties can break into the ANC’s electoral base together.
“There is a recognition that individually none of them can make any impact on that massive ANC majority and perhaps together they will be able to break in through a chink in the ANC’s armour. The major reason why this will not work is the proportional representation [PR] system. With the PR system it does not make any difference if you have a common alliance or not because your support is reflected through numbers, not constituencies.”
The Freedom Front’s Pieter Mulder is similarly sceptical of an opposition alliance.
“If you do not have over 50% you are in the minority. Whether you drown alone in two metres of water or all together in five metres of water it does not make a difference, the water is still over your head … But in any case ganging up against the ANC will not work … an alliance must coalesce around an issue, but there is no issue. Anti-ANC sentiment is not enough,” he said.
The Freedom Front is using the recess to refine its political strategy. It has a go-it-alone approach, preferring to cultivate a relationship with the ANC on its own terms, rather than to get into the trenches with the rest.
The Democratic Party at this stage is equivocal, searching for solutions for survival. DP Parliamentary spokesman Robert Desmarais, like members of the NP, believes that the political landscape needs to be restructured, but can’t see it happening before the turn of the century.
“We are hearing from our supporters that they are looking for a united opposition, but we don’t think that the NP could be a vehicle to attract such a sort of opposition … I think in the new set-up to prevent majority domination and to get a real opposition going would be to get control of a couple of provinces. If you have a united opposition controlling two provinces, then you can have a decent alliance,” he said.
It may be easier to form provincial alliances than national ones, because there is less at stake, and only an arm of the party is committed to a common cause, not its heart and soul. But many of the core DP supporters hate the NP with such vehemence that it is likely that the party would lose much of its own support by committing itself to an alliance with the Nats.
Stephen Friedman of the Centre for Policy Studies believes that opposition parties would lose votes by getting into a huddle.
“Unlike new democracies, South Africa has quite a stong political-party identification. Groups of people feel strongly about political parties and people are loyal to those parties,” he said.
But even if the parties could talk their supporters around to an alliance, it’s unlikely that their chorus will mean more than the sum of their solo voices. Schrire believes that the next real opposition lies within the ranks of the ANC.
“A credible opposition party will only emerge when the ANC splits and part of that split forms the centre of a new alliance. And for that reason, the ANC is doing everything in its power to prevent that happening. The ANC maintains unity by maintaining a certain vagueness on controversial issues and follows a tough policy of not defining issues too sharply.”
It is not for nothing that ANC upstarts such as Phatekile Holomisa, Deputy Minister of Environmental Affairs Bantu Holomisa and firebrand Winnie Madikizela-Mandela are kept within the fold at all costs, rather than be expelled to ferment opposition amongst black voters. When Deputy President Thabo Mbeki takes over from President Nelson Mandela, one of his great tests will be to keep intact the ANC’s broad church. And if he does so, there will not be much point opposition parties getting into bed, because however hard they cling to each other, they will not be able to procreate.