Lower interest rates and a consumer-friendly budget are sure to put extra money into the pockets of consumers – which should bring smiles to the country’s retailers and value to their shares.
While some of the bigger South African stores have had a difficult time in the last year with low levels of consumer spending and a tough credit environment, the consensus is that things can only improve.
Both Foschini and Edgars reported poor earnings figures last year, which prompted them to embark on rationalisation programmes aimed at increasing the efficiency of their businesses.
Foschini, the first to start the exercise, has already seen an improvement in profits and shareprice. After reaching an annual low of R11,19 in June the group’s share price rose above R19 earlier this month.
The probability that Edgars’s restructuring efforts will bear fruit down the line makes the group’s share a potential good buy. Hovering at around R85, it is off an annual low of R64 in January, while down on the high of more than R135 in June last year.
Retail group Wooltru has already proved that it can handle even the tough times, with the separate listing of Woolworths having made some investors very happy.
The ambitious Wooltru team is now getting ready to list its next company, Truworths International, in May, which indicates that the team is confident about the future of the sector. In the same month, the group will begin the construction of a massive sh opping centre in Soweto with the Maponya group.
While the flotation of Truworths International was on the cards way before speculation about a listing hit the market, it seems likely that windfall gains can only help boost turnover for the latest Wooltru baby. Of course, the retail sector is not insen sitive to the vagaries of the market, and, while the fundamentals look good, poorly managed companies and those operating in difficult niche marke ts will continue to take strain.
Lower interest rates aside, a factor likely to benefit South African clothing retailers is the planned demutualisation of life groups Sanlam and Old Mutual, which will give a sheen to the bank accounts of policyholders.
Estimates are that nearly R70-billion could flow to more than six million policyholders when the life groups list, making the average payout to individuals in excess of R10 000.
Demutualisation in the United Kingdom saw some spin-off for the retail sector, which benefited from improved consumer spending as a result of policyholders’ windfall.
Some analysts argue that any cash in the consumer’s pocket as a result of demutualisation is, in this tight financial environment, likely to go toward paying off debt or buying semi-durable goods like stoves and refrigerators rather than towards new clot hes or extra food. But others disagree, saying that most consumers will be tempted to spend some of their windfall, probably benefiting the furnit ure sector first, and clothing and food retailers second.
Furniture retailers like Profurn and the JD Group have already proved themselves as strong profit-earners. Profurn’s share price has raced ahead from R1,11 in March last year to more than R4 on its earnings performance, making these attractive shares.
Profurn is particularly active in the rest of the continent, where it has a strong expansion programme in place, and many market players are confident about the group’s ability to grow its share price beyond current highs.
While many beneficiaries of demutualisation will cautiously reinvest their shares, there is no doubt that many will take at least a portion and spoil themselves. Either way, the sagging retail sector is looking forward to an early Christmas and a much we lcome surge in sales when those cheques starting popping into mailboxes.