Iden Wetherell
A banking crisis is followed by economic collapse. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) steps in with a harsh rescue package. Student-led anti-corruption protests precipitate the fall of a dictator whose rule has only recently been praised as providing regional stability.
Zimbabwe may at first glance appear far removed from Indonesia. But recent events have led commentators to suggest the comparisons made by student demonstrators last week are not so far-fetched.
Chanting “Suharto, Mugabe, Indonesia, Zimbabwe”, several thousand students besieged Parliament in downtown Harare last week demanding the establishment of a commission to investigate what they allege is systematic corruption in President Robert Mugabe’s government.
“Mugabe go. We are tired of your despotism, arrogance and idiocy,” said one of their banners, taunts that would have been inconceivable in Zimbabwe’s deferential political culture a few years ago.
Police broke up further protests on Monday and authorities closed down the University of Zimbabwe and Harare Polytechnic on Tuesday, but student leaders pledged to continue their campaign, threatening to oust Mugabe if he refused to act.
“He must go because he is the problem,” student leader Learnmore Jongwe said of Zimbabwe’s 74-year-old ruler, until recently seen as the architect of regional stability.
This week the IMF provided a US$175- million rescue package after abandoning the country in 1995 because of fiscal delinquency. The fund is believed to have imposed stringent terms which will make life even more uncomfortable for Zimbabwe’s already restive workers.
Meanwhile, the collapse of the United Merchant Bank has exposed a black empowerment process driven by political cronyism, which, by jeopardising confidence in other black institutions, has sabotaged attempts to broaden economic ownership.
In one form or another Zimbabwean taxpayers will be left with a hefty tab for the government’s refusal to heed warnings that shortcuts in the banking system could undermine the whole economy, already in trouble after years of self-indulgent expenditure by Mugabe and his bloated Cabinet.
Investigations into the fate of the bank, critics say, are likely to be conducted with the same opacity that has characterised the government’s award of contracts for airport construction, power generation, and telecommunications.
Blatant favouritism in business dealings and a perception that Zimbabwe’s leadership is hostile to reform – political as well as economic – represent powerful disincentives to investors, observers point out. But if the regime is facing terminal decline it shows no sign of recognising the symptoms.
Mugabe has described the findings of the World Economic Forum’s Africa Competitiveness Report that placed Zimbabwe 20 out of 23 African countries as “revulsive” – a favourite word – saying he would write to the forum’s founder Claus Schwab to complain. It isn’t likely to help. Nor are promises of a Cabinet reshuffle which Suharto also proposed in a bid to retain power.
Other Indonesian echoes can be clearly detected. Mugabe has been plagued by accusations that members of his family have taken advantage of their connections to win lucrative deals. Like President Suharto, he is reported to have consulted traditional leaders on how to get out of his current fix.
And as in Jakarta, potential successors waiting in the wings are unlikely to provide anything substantially new. Mugabe is surrounded by acolytes who are only too aware of the danger of offering solutions to the country’s manifold problems.
The last person to do so, Masvingo MP Dzikamai Mavhaire, was denounced as a witch by Mugabe and stripped of his party rank. But despite severe intimidation, MPs, hitherto little more than rubber stamps, appear alert to the looming danger and, like so many others in Zimbabwe, are finding their voice.
Arguing the case for improved management of the country’s disappearing public funds, Lazarus Nzarayebani told MPs recently that they should not allow the creation of “a Suharto kind of situation”.
“That situation is coming because of how we behave publicly,” he warned. “Those people we represent out there, they are very poor people when some people here are filthy rich because of manipulating public funds.”
Mugabe’s offer to move his ministers cuts no ice with civil society representative. “Reshuffling the Cabinet won’t change anything,” says Reginald Matchaba-Hove, chair of human rights lobby ZimRights. “Student protests provide a mirror of a wider malaise in the body politic. What is needed is a complete overhaul of the political system.”
But others are sceptical that the student protests can have an impact.
Political scientist John Makumbe thinks the students lack both the cohesion and resolve to spearhead national revolt.
“I don’t think they can sustain a major showdown with the state,” he said. “Indonesians are known to commit suicide for a cause. But when one student here is shot and injured, the rest rush back to their hostel.”