Christine Gordon
With Angola’s peace process at breaking point, the government in Luanda is mobilising its army to block any further advances by opposition movement Unita.
No direct fighting has been reported, but the government is preparing for war.
Unofficial estimates put Unita’s military capacity at 30 000 armed troops, a militia of 60 000 and sufficient equipment to launch a guerrilla war. With its guerilla army concealed, these figures are impossible to verify. But the sheer existence of a sizeable army does not indicate peaceful intentions by Unita.
The question everyone is asking is whether Unita leader Jonas Savimbi intends to launch a guerrilla war and choose political suicide and more destruction in Angola.
He is using this threat to negotiate, demanding an extension of the United Nation’s deadline for withdrawing from the Bailondo and Andulo regions, in the face of looming UN sanctions.
Unita wants an extension of five days until June 30. “After four years, what difference can five days make?” asked a puzzled UN representative.
By Wednesday evening, no word had come from the joint commission monitoring the Angolan peace process to say whether the imposition of a third set of sanctions should be stopped. A statement had, however, been prepared in New York in the event of a decision to delay sanctions.
The joint commission – consisting of the United States, Portuguese and Russian ambassadors, the UN special representative to Angola, and Angolan government and Unita representatives – was awaiting “a solid commitment from Savimbi” on the handover of their headquarter regions. Their decision had been expected late on Tuesday June 23, Unita’s deadline for compliance.
Unita has backed down far enough to begin the process of handing over its headquarters; technical teams went to the area last weekend to begin the process.
Secretary General Kofi Annan told the UN that if Unita met its demands, he would recommend an extension of the UN observer mission in Angola’s mandate until August 31.
He added that if there is no political will to complete the peace process, “it would become necessary … to review the United Nations involvement in Angola”.
The UN knows that Unita has lied systematically about its army. Even if Savimbi co-operates now, the underlying problem of disarming the Unita military machine remains.
If the level of conflict in Angola rises, its government now has powerful allies. US links with Angola have strengthened. Angola is one of its more important sources of oil, providing 7% of US oil imports. Military co- operation has been under discussion for some time.
Renewed relations with Russia could also aid Angola. President Jose Eduardo dos Santos visited Russia this week and signed a co- operation agreement which resolved the $6- billion debt incurred by Angolan purchases of military equipment during the 1980s.
The debts are to be translated into assets, including diamond mines, it was reported by Interfax.
This agreement also opens the door for a further credit line for arms purchases and spare parts.
Unita may try to isolate a region as its new fiefdom, while buying time from the UN. But Savimbi is no longer in a position to win a war; only to prevent anyone else “winning”.