Howard Barrell
The Angolan government has moved troops and heavy artillery into position for a large-scale offensive against rebel Unita positions in the central highlands of the country. South African-based security analysts expect an assault to commence in the next few days.
The government in Luanda is understood to have sought, and got, the permission of the Namibian and Congolese governments to move military forces and supplies across their territories if doing so will help it outflank Unita.
Angolan government forces have taken delivery of two shipments of heavy- calibre artillery over the past fortnight. The supplies come from one or more Eastern European countries that once formed part of the now-defunct Warsaw Pact military alliance. A number of these countries have surpluses of weaponry compatible with the armaments supplied to Angola by the former Soviet Union.
On the opposing side, key Unita strategists and military leaders who had been working within the peace process in Luanda are reported to have slipped out of the Angolan capital in recent weeks, and headed for rebel territory.
They include General Antonio Dembo, Unita’s deputy president, who is reported to be in the central highlands in the vicinity of Unita strongholds near Andulo and Bailundo. He and others have been organising resistance against the anticipated attack.
Ordinary Unita foot soldiers have deserted demobilisation points across the country and, in recent weeks, Unita forces have retaken scores of positions which they had earlier ceded to the government under the peace process.
The Angolan government’s public justification for the expected offensive will be that the rebels have shown they are not at all serious about the pursuit of peace. But security analysts say a more important motivation for attacking Unita now is a worsening financial crisis within the government.
Angola has already spent large cash advances it has sought and received for future oil production, leaving the government with a serious revenue-flow problem. Establishing control over diamond fields currently in Unita territory and bringing an end to the war have become more urgent.
A major government offensive would mean the end, finally, of the Lusaka accords, signed in November 1994, which form the basis of the search for peace in Angola. These provided for the demobilisation of the two armies and the resumption of peaceful political activity.
Security analysts interviewed say the government has a three-month time-frame for the offensive, which it hopes will culminate in a successful attack on Jamba, Unita leader Jonas Savimbi’s old headquarters. The rainy season, which makes much Angolan terrain impassable particularly for heavy military equipment, usually starts in October or November.
“We could be looking at an endgame scenario in Angola in the next few months – and there is no saying which way it will go,” a South African-based security analyst said.
It was quite within the realms of possibility that Unita could inflict a decisive defeat on the Angolan government, he added.