Andy Capostagno Rugby
The only certainties in life are death and taxes. So wrote Woody Allen, a man who would have difficulty just pronouncing Loftus Versfeld, let alone finding Pretoria on a map. But he would have sympathised with a few disgruntled punters who last weekend had their dreams shattered by a scoreline of Blue Bulls 20, Western Province 38. In fact, one local scribe was heard to cry, “The whole season stuffed up with one bad performance!”
Is it really that bad? Could be. A look at the log with two weekends of qualifying to go reveals that the Bulls, far from being assured of a home semi-final, may now not even make the last four. This is how it looks. The Bulls have 44 points and they finish against Natal Sharks at King’s Park and Free State at Loftus. With Ruben Kruger out for the season and a sudden deflation of confidence, it is not impossible that the Bulls will finish the season on 44 points.
Free State play the Golden Lions in Bloemfontein on Saturday and they finish against the Bulls in a fortnight. Given the verve with which the Cheetahs played either side of half- time against Boland on Sunday, they can reasonably expect to take five points from their home game, which would leave them on 43 with the Bulls to play; effectively a winner- take-all scenario.
The sleeping giants of Natal have hit their stride at the right time. They will be confident of beating the Bulls at Kings Park this week and a five- point haul would give them 48 points. The Sharks finish against Western Province at Newlands. We will come back to that. Province play South Western Districts at Newlands this weekend. If they win and score four tries they will be tied with the Bulls on 44 points.
That means that the Province/Natal encounter could settle a number of issues. If it began, as it well might, with Natal on 48 points and Province and the Bulls on 44, victory for the Sharks, or even perhaps defeat with the acquisition of a bonus point, would ensure a semi-final in Durban. Victory for Province would ensure a semi-final spot, defeat would not necessarily make that impossible. If Province produced the kind of display they put on against the Bulls, scoring at least four tries and denying the Sharks a bonus point, they could host a semi-final at Newlands.
It all depends what happens at Loftus on the same afternoon. If Free State begin the game on 43 points and win they are in the semis. If the Bulls win or draw they are in the semis. If they lose and Province lose it comes down to bonus points and if that can’t separate them it’s points for and against. In the latter instance it would almost certainly favour the Bulls.
But since you’re expecting a prediction, here’s mine. Griquas will top the log with 54 points (they finish against the Falcons in Kimberley after taking this week off). They will host a semi-final against the fourth placed team, let’s say Western Province. Natal will come second in the log with 52 points and will host a semi-final in Durban against Free State.
That will be a repeat of last year’s encounter which Free State won against the odds before losing to Province in the final at Newlands.
Province, you may recall, beat the Lions at Newlands in the other semi- final, which means that if all the above prognostication comes to fruition there will only be one change in the quartet who reach the knockout stages this year, with Griquas substituting for the happless Lions. But what a significant change that is.
A union that has reportedly got R17 million to spend to bring players to a stadium which has hosted a World Cup final is this year among the also rans. A union which has so little cash to spare that it is forced to make the most of Western Province discards and which plays at a stadium which holds 12E000 people when jam packed, tops the log.
The exciting prospect of a final between Griquas and Natal at Absa Park in Kimberley looms large. The last time Griquas hosted a final against a major union they won handsomely. And Im not talking about the Currie Cup final of 1970, when Northerns were narrowly beaten, but about the Vodacom Cup final this year when Griquas beat the Lions 57-0.
On that day there was much talk about how the old regime would reassert itself once the Currie Cup got underway. But at this distance it is plain to see that the Lions, an unhappy mixture of old heroes and new potential, were in disarray and that Griquas had built a team to be reckoned with. In addition, I wonder if it would be pertinent to point out at this juncture that Western Province won the Vodacom Cup last year and went on to make it a double trophy season? On the other hand it might be wisest to leave the forecasting to the weather men and take Woody Allen’s advice to heart.