The battle for votes among South Africa’s political parties is on. The African National Congress and the Democratic Party launch their election campaigns this weekend. The New National Party set out its stall last weekend.
And other major parties are loosening up their tongues and sharpening up their soundbites for 10 weeks of campaigning which reaches its climax at the polls on June 2.
As voters prepare to weather a torrent of propaganda, claims and counterclaims in what will be South Africa’s most expensive, loquacious and sophisticated election race ever, Howard Barrell and Wally Mbhele take the role of tipsters, analysing the best of the form and boldly predicting the winners and losers.
They forecast that the number of seats the ANC wins in the National Assembly will be marginally down on its total in 1994. They suggest the ANC will scrape home with an absolute majority in the Gauteng legislature. They reckon it will emerge as the largest single party, though without an absolute majority, in provincial legislatures in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape.
And they believe anti-ANC coalition governments will take power in the Western Cape and the Northern Cape. This will make the ANC the government in seven out of nine provinces.
The main loser in the election will, they forecast, be the NNP, whose support will be nearly halved.
The biggest gains will be scored by Tony Leon’s DP and the new wild card, Bantu Holomisa and Roelf Meyer’s United Democratic Movement. The Freedom Front, under General Constand Viljoen, and African Christian Democratic Party, under Reverend Ken Meshoe, will improve their positions.
The Pan Africanist Congress will remain at a low-level standstill. The Inkatha Freedom Party will lose its dominance in KwaZulu- Natal and suffer about a 25% fall in support nationally. And Louis Luyt’s Federal Alliance will be five members short of a decent pack of forwards in the National Assembly.
WESTERN CAPE
Party1994 seatsForecast 1999
ANC1414
DP39
NNP2310
UDM-3
PAC01
FF1-
FA-1
ACDP11
Total4239*
Outsider: NNP splits over whether to form the government with ANC or DP, and the party’s internal battle ends up in the law courts because, under our proportional representation system, a party leadership determines who occupies the seats a party has won at an election.
Hot tip: ANC attracts UDM and NNP into a limited government of provincial unity, excluding DP.
Odds-on: Anti-ANC alliance takes power, built around NNP and DP, with UDM and FA participation.
NORTHERN PROVINCE
Party1994 seatsForecast 1999
ANC3847
DP00
NNP11
UDM-0
FF11
Total4049*
Odds-on: ANC landslide. NNP and FF cling on by their fingernails.
NORTHERN CAPE
Party1994 seatsForecast 1999
ANC1512
DP12
NNP1210
UDM-1
FF22
AMP-3
Total3030
Hot tip: ANC draws AMP into an alliance in government in which it depends from day to day on disagreements between opposition parties to give it a ruling majority.
Odds-on: ANC fails to get absolute majority amid leadership ructions. Anti-ANC alliance comes to power around NNP. But can it hold together?
MPUMALANGA
Party1994 seatsForecast 1999
ANC2524
DP01
NNP32
UDM-1
FF21
PAC01
Total3030
Odds-on: Confusion over the position of the locally popular Premier, Mathews Phosa, leads to very slight drop in ANC support, but the ruling party romps home. Tough-talking DP wins over a few farmers and urban whites.
EASTERN CAPE
Party1994 seatsForecast 1999
ANC4847
DP13
NNP63
UDM-9
PAC11
Total5663*
Odds-on: UDM takes chunk of ANC support, but speculation that it could seriously challenge the ANC in its own heartland proves ill- founded. DP wins over portion of NNP voters.
NORTH-WEST
Party1994 seatsForecast 1999
ANC2626
DP01
FF11
NNP33
UDM-1
UCDP-1
Total3033*
Odds-on: ANC rides roughshod again, though the UDM and Lucas Mangope’s UCDP make slight inroads among black voters.
GAUTENG
Party1994 seatsForecast 1999
ANC5043
DP510
FF54
IFP31
NNP216
UDM-5
FA-2
PAC11
ACDP 11
Total8673*
Outsider: Our forecasts are wrong and ANC fails to get absolute majority. All other parties, bar IFP, combine to form anti-ANC coalition. But for how long will the ANC allow them to govern South Africa’s richest province?
Odds-on: ANC scrapes home. NNP and IFP votes also down. UDM and DP main gainers.
KWAZULU-NATAL
Party1994 seatsForecast 1999
ANC2632
DP26
IFP4130
NNP96
UDM-4
MF11
ACDP1-
PAC11
Total8180*
Outsider: IFP hardliners seek alliance with UDM and other opposition groups.
Odds-on: ANC and Inkatha form coalition government. DP makes slight gains from NNP.
FREE STATE
Party1994 seatsForecast 1999
ANC2422
DP01
FF22
NNP44
UDM-1
Others00
Total3030
Best guess: Sparkle is taken out of ANC victory in with the loss of two seats following ongoing leadership battles after the departure of Patrick “Terror” Lekota. Small gains for UDM and DP.
* The number of seats in the provinces’ legislatures determined by the Independent Electoral Commission on March 17
Key to the parties
African Moral Party (AMP)
African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP)
African National Congress (ANC)
Democratic Party (DP)
Federal Alliance (FA)
Freedom Front (FF)
Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP)
Minority Front (MF)
New National Party (NNP)
Pan Africanist Congress (PAC)
United Christian Democratic Party (UCDP)
United Democratic Movement (UDM)
There are 400 seats in the National Assembly. Two hundred of them are elected on a directly proportional basis by all voters. These are known as the “national to national” candidates.
The other 200 seats are elected to reflect the varying degrees of support which the political parties achieved at the polls within each province. These are known as the “provincial to national” candidates.
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
ANC 124 128 252124
123 247
DP 4 3 7
16 16 32
FF 5 4 9
5 5 10
IFP 21 22 43 19
16 35
NNP 40 42 82 25
25 50
UDM – – – 6
8 14
ACDP 2 0 2
2 2 4
AMP – – – 0
0 0
FA – – – 1
2 3
MF 0 0 0
0 0 0
PAC 4 1 5
2 3 5
UCDP – – – 0
0 0
Totals 200 200 400200
200 400