Iden Wetherell South Africa is being asked to firm up its support for Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe’s beleaguered regime by putting in place credit lines and trade incentives to help revive its northern neighbour’s ailing economy.
But realities on the ground across the Limpopo could put paid to the best of intentions by Pretoria’s planners. This week experts warned of a looming ecological disaster as Zimbabwe’s chaotic land redistribution exercise affects prime conservation areas. New Zimbabwean Minister of Finance Simba Makoni is due in Pretoria soon to negotiate a package of measures aimed at providing relief and recovery. Zimbabwe’s power utility Zesa owes US$20- million (about R140-million) to Eskom while the country is desperately short of foreign exchange. It is expected Makoni will be accompanied by Minister of Trade Nkosana Moyo.
The visit was first mooted at talks between President Thabo Mbeki and Mugabe in Harare this month. But no firm date has been set, partly because any arrangements between Pretoria and Harare will need to be set in the wider context of agreement between Zimbabwe and lenders such as the International Monetary Fund. Given the ongoing land confiscations there is little prospect of that. But the South Africans clearly believe they have a duty to prevent a looming catastrophe that could affect neighbouring states. At its meeting this week the Cabinet reiterated South Africa’s commitment to dialogue with the Zimbabwean government in pursuit of economic recovery and social stabilty. Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel said last week that “Zimbabwe needs all the support it can get. “Zimbabwe can’t be shut off,” he told SABC. “The government must be helped to reach the right decisions.” He didn’t say what these were. But Mbeki and his Cabinet have bought Mugabe’s claim that Zimbabwe’s central problem is skewed landownership.
Britain and other international donors, however, believe it is one of governance. They argue land could easily be redistributed in an orderly way if Mugabe agreed to stop lawlessness and implement a programme that involved all stakeholders. That would open the way for substantial donor support. But bolstered by the backing of South Africa and other regional partners the Zimbabwean leadership believes it can defy the donors as well as the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which advocates a less confrontational approach. While Makoni and Moyo are credible and forceful advocates of reform who will quickly win the sympathy of their South African counterparts, there is little prospect of their succeeding in securing wider international assistance as long as Mugabe continues to sabotage Zimbabwe’s hitherto solid agricultural foundations. Police moved this week to demolish structures erected by war veterans on farms on Harare’s immediate periphery, but more than 1 000 remain occupied elsewhere with attendant disruption of agriculture and destruction of the environment. There has been little planning for those haphazardly resettled by selection committees dominated by war veterans and ruling Zanu-PF officials. Even less thought has been given to the future of the farm workers they displace.
While the beneficiaries of land redistribution are invariably Zanu-PF members, the evicted farm workers are assumed to be MDC supporters. The Farmworkers’ Action Group, a network of support organisations, said this week 240E000 labourers were likely to lose their jobs, 70% of the total, if Mugabe’s current land offensive persists. There were clashes earlier this week in Karoi, north-west of Harare, when farm workers retaliated against war veterans who have been subjecting them to regular beatings and “re-education” sessions. The extent of the crisis Zimbabwe faces emerged this week in reports from the Commercial Farmers’ Union (CFU), which represents 4 500 farmers, a sixth of whom are black. It is not just agricultural production that is suffering. Intensive conservation areas managed by farmers to protect woodland, game and river systems are under siege as farm occupiers engage in commercial tree- cutting and poaching. Most seriously affected has been the Save Valley Conservancy, a 340E000ha network of ranches which are home to rare species such as the African hunting dog and black rhino relocated from the killing fields of the Zambezi Valley. With skilful management and schemes to benefit neighbouring communities, the conservancy was a post-independence success story and ecotourism money-spinner. Recently it was overrun by thousands of people mobilised by war veterans. Fences have been cut, snares set and game guards captured. Large areas of grassland have been set alight to capture animals and there is worry about the fate of the black rhinos.
Police “just watched from a distance”, ranchers said. The conservancy’s administrators said there was “no doubt” some rhinos had been killed by poachers. “Police are reluctant to act and seem to be waiting for a political order,” CFU regional chair Mike Clark said. A South African wildlife expert, Professor Francois du Toit of Pretoria University, told the BBC last weekend that Zimbabwe was heading for an ecological catastrophe. The current pattern of resettlement, without capital or skills, would lead to extensive environmental degradation and the extinction of endangered species such as black rhino, sable and cheetah, he said. As Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector declined in recent years, tourism was seen as the country’s salvation. South African travel writers were recently hosted by tourism officials in a bid to airbrush the land crisis. That task now looks more difficult. As Manuel puts together his rescue package the underlying problems of predatory leadership and flawed governance are likely to conspire to thwart a viable solution to Zimbabwe’s politically driven crisis.