Andy Capostagno rugby
Parochial considerations notwithstanding, for those who cherish the endless complexities that league tables throw up, the climax to this year’s Super 12 is the stuff that dreams are made of. Here we are, three weeks away from the semifinals and any four out of 10 teams can still qualify. Only the Blues and the Bulls are completely out of the running. The competition’s supporters will tell you that this proves that there is no substitute for strength against strength. Of course, its detractors may suggest that what it really proves is that the sixth year of Super 12 has been a mediocre one and that is why the organisers are looking to expand it and change its dates next year. As always, the truth lies somewhere in between. And despite the heroics of the Cats and the Sharks it would be difficult to convince anyone north of the equator that there was more than one outstanding team in this competition.
That team, needless to say, plays its rugby in Canberra and has a halfback pairing of George Gregan and Stephen Larkham. The Brumbies were stymied at the final hurdle last year and are third on the log at the moment, three points behind the Cats and four behind the Sharks, but with a game in hand on both.
If South Africa had been a dominant force in the world game over the past two years, no one in this country would care too much about that, but these are nervous times. We can cope with the steady progress of the Cats, safe in the knowledge that they are a good but limited side. The Sharks, however, are a different kettle of water dwellers. Rudolph Straeuli tried his damnedest to keep everyone’s feet on the ground during the five-match unbeaten home run, but gravity lost its hold when the Sharks beat the Blues and the Chiefs in fortress New Zealand. Successive defeats to the Reds and the Crusaders have brought out the I-told-you-so brigade and suddenly Straeuli is accused of false prophecy. The fact is that the Sharks may have hit the wall at precisely the right time. They have a bye this week (together with the Cats) and thus have a whole fortnight to rest weary limbs and plan the defeat of the Stormers in Wellington, a result that would guarantee them a semifinal berth and virtually guarantee that it would be in Durban.
Of course it is quite possible that both the Cats and the Sharks could lose their final games and still have home semifinals, but everyone is assuming, rightly or wrongly, that the Brumbies will win their final two matches and leapfrog the South African teams.
But that is a large assumption. For one thing, the Brumbies have contrived to lose three of their nine matches so far and only beat the Cats with the final kick of the game at Ellis Park. They play the Blues in Auckland this week, finish against the Chiefs in Canberra, and in the circumstances coach Eddie Jones would be delighted if he could swap places with either Straeuli or Laurie Mains. A further bonus for the latter two gentlemen is that they can sit back and watch a few of the other contenders eliminate themselves this week. The teams currently placed between fourth and seventh play each other in the two most intriguing fixtures. The Highlanders (fourth) have had a week off, but have to beat the Reds (sixth) in Brisbane to keep alive their faint hopes of a home semifinal. The Hurricanes (fifth) play the Chiefs (seventh) in Wellington where the same equation applies. If the Brumbies should happen to lose in Auckland the scrap for the third and fourth semifinal places will further drain the candidates and ease the burden on the Sharks and the Cats. So where to put your money? Well, the Highlanders have only won once in Brisbane in the eight years of the Super 10 and Super 12, and that was by a single point in 1999. But in Dunedin last year they put 50 points on the Reds, and with last week’s bye, everything to gain and nothing to lose they should be too strong for the Reds. The Hurricanes and the Chiefs are the two most unpredictable sides in the tournament. They are both capable of staggering brilliance one week and stunning mediocrity the next. As a case in point, against the Bulls the Chiefs ran riot from deep. A week later they were comfortably dealt with by the Stormers. Neither has any form to speak of against the other. Their encounters are normally low-scoring, close affairs and away wins are not unusual. The place-kicking of David Holwell and Glen Jackson is likely to decide the issue, for at this late stage of the competition teams recognise the need to win above the need to score tries. Teams also recognise the fact that points in the bank are as precious as rubies and when the dust settles the Sharks and the Cats will be back on track for a shot at glory.