whipping boy
The merit-rating system has thrown handicaps like the Durban July wide open and any pundit who expresses confidence about the outcome of this year’s premier event is talking through his hat.
So closely is the field handicapped that just about every runner has some sort of chance. Ability over the 2 200m distance, the draw, quality of preparation and inspired jockeyship on the day impossible to predict, of course are likely to be the determining factors in what promises to be a desperate drive for the line.
This makes the relatively short odds for favourite Badger’s Drift most intriguing 5-2, with 11-2 for his closest rival, is poor value indeed. Granted, the expensive son of Badger Land was most impressive in his Daily News 2000 victory at the course, but that was against his own age group at level weights, and a couple of his main rivals that day, Nhlavini and Addictive, performed below their best.
Nhlavini had his blinkers removed after running well equipped with them. He now wears them again and gets 1kg from the favourite. He is not sure to stay the distance, but his dam did win over 2 000m. Significantly, Mark Khan rides 40-1 shot Nhlavini, presumably in preference to third favourite Trademark, on whom he won easily last time out.
Addictive certainly does stay. In the South African Derby he was just a neck adrift of Geoff Woodruff’s colt, and now gets 1,5kg, the equivalent of roughly two lengths. He may well have been affected by his strangeness to KwaZulu-Natal and Greyville and should improve on his Daily News run.
Trademark, a four-year-old beaten a short head in the Met, actually gets 0,5kg from younger Badger’s Drift and must have a big chance himself with Piere Strydom up.
Hoeberg’s form is brilliant, but the second favourite has met males only once, and those were certainly not this class. There is every chance, though, that she is better than she’s shown so far. She’ll have to be to win.
Another three-year-old, Celtic Grove, is brilliant over a mile but has real stamina doubts, which even his trainer expresses. He is out of a sprinting mare but if he stays he has a chance. Even then he is no certainty.
Five-year-old Fort Defiance,
another son of Fort Wood, ironically carried a good deal more weight two years ago (when favourite) than the 51kg he shoulders now. He was right alongside Trademark at the latter’s penultimate run and must have a chance. But waiting for this one to win has been like watching grass grow. Stable companion Badger’s Coast seems not to like the course, but has won here. He is classy and has a chance.
Old man of the race Classic Flag has had two starts since being lame, running below his best. He has an excellent record in this race, though, and must have a place chance.
Jockey Kevin Shea on Young Rake will be dreaming of going a centimetre better than his heart-stopping second last year. Respect the desire.
Big Brass and Queen’s Plate
winner Free My Heart do best over less, but can’t really be discounted, while The Sheik has had a good preparation.
It’s not easy. Nhlavini is my value choice to beat Trademark, Hoeberg and Badger’s Drift.
In the Premier’s Champion Stakes sensational Flight Alert meets Palace Line and Millennium Diamond to decide, surely, the best juvenile in South Africa.