Cellular communication is moving from being a voice carrier to a data network
David Shapshak
There have been many false dawns in the cellular industry, but the brightest moments appear to be upon us. Super-fast networks an Internet connection that continuously links you, through your phone, to the global communications infrastructure are the next sunrise.
As ever the innovation is being led by the East, where Japan is the first country to launch the much vaunted GPRS-upgrade that allows for whopping 156 kilobits per second data speeds.
GPRS stands for general packet radio service, what is being called 2.5G one step beyond our current second generation or 2G GSM networks and one of many technologies that will lead to the very hyped, but very sexy, third generation (3G) networks. These networks will allow for, among other things, video streaming using handsets with built-in cameras.
The cellular industry, if anything, has reached a kind of plateau as cellphones reach into every part of our society, to saturation levels in some markets.
Whatever happens after Cell C’s launch this weekend (there was no information at the time of going to press) the cellular market is an entirely different place from what it was when it launched. And it has changed dramatically in the past year.
Globally the telecommunications sector as a whole is in a slump, brought on by the dotbomb Internet implosion and the sudden disappearance of the demand for which it suddenly had lots of supply.
Wireless companies, especially European firms, are reeling from the outrageous prices they paid for 3G licences at the height of the Internet mania. But it seems the only way out is up. On the horizon are faster networks and better services to recoup their money, if they survive that long.
The key to understanding this new sunrise is that cellular communication will move from being a voice-bearing network to a data carrier. Much like what the Internet’s arrival did with the conventional fixed-line system, making it the backbone for data communication between computers, so faster cellular networks are aiming to bring similar functionality to the cellphone.
Much has been heralded with faster networks. Current data speeds on the 2G GSM networks are a mere 9,6 kilobits a second, far lower than the 56 kilobits a second most dial-up modems are capable of, and several orders of magnitude less than the massive data speeds promised by GPRS and 3G.
Motorola has demonstrated such a GPRS connection that gave data transfer rates far in advance of regular modems wirelessly.
While the networks hold off on implementing such expensive services, for a variety of reasons not least of which is how to bill users, the promise of such connectivity reignites the Internet dream of access for all.
Cellphones with their two-inch black-and-white screens are not ideally suited to the Internet, but this changes when they are integrated with a larger-screened personal digital assistant (PDA) or combined with a PDA using the Bluetooth wireless technology. Add to the mix the advances in voice recognition and your e-mail will be read out to you and you can dictate your messages.
Motorola has launched the first GPRS phone in South Africa, the Accompli 008, a combination PDA-phone that runs Java and can handle real-time ticker services such as stock market indicators over GSM.
Bluetooth has been called a wireless replacement technology for good reasons: it will essentially create a personal network for all your digital devices (cellphone, PDA, digital camera, PC) and let them communicate with each other at 1Mbs through a radio signal that is effective up to 10m.
Having your e-mail read to you is part of what unified messaging aims to give you: access to your e-mail through a variety of devices. The system will know if you access it with a phone, in which case your mail will be read to you through its voice-activation capabilities, or through a computer, in which case you will receive messages in text format.
Unified messaging is being touted by IBM, which says it will be used by MTN, Vodacom and Telkom next year.
As was evident when the Internet reached fever pitch a few years ago, and then minister of communications Jay Naidoo prophesied that it would leapfrog Africa into a new digital age, faster cell networks are being punted as Africa’s saviour.
However, while many positives have emerged about Africa’s increased telecommunications at the International Telecommunications Union’s Telecom Africa conference being held in Midrand this week, there are many negatives.
“At the time of Africa Telecom 98 there were barely two million mobile subscribers on the African continent. By the end of next month there will be more than 15 times that number, with 30-million subscribers in Africa,” says Yoshio Utsumi, secretary general of the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), the United Nations telecommunications regulatory body.
“Africa’s new voice can be heard in the streets, in the shops, on the beach, in cars and in trains. In short, Africa’s new voice can be heard in every place there are Africans,” he said, referring to the reach of new mobile networks.
Utsumi also considers 2000 to be a milestone year for sub-Saharan Africa in terms of fixed-line growth. The region passed the 1% tele-density mark during the year with 1,2 fixed-line phones for every 100 people. The ITU considers 1% both a psychological line and a minimum point where telecommunications can start to significantly contribute to economic growth.
But the ITU pointed out this week that although “South Africa was once the envy of the African telecom sector … Recently things have not been going so well. Some 500 000 fixed lines were disconnected last year for fraud and non-payment, causing a decline in the fixed density (to only the fifth highest in Africa).”
Recent estimates are that only 14% of South Africans have access to a phone and only two million of the country’s 43-million people use the Internet. Globally, Africa has the lowest telephone line connectivity with an estimated 11,2 lines connected per 1 000 people while it hosts 0,6% of the Internet users in the world.
Which is why there is a lot of excitement for a cellular network that does not require the expensive rollout of landlines and theft-ridden copper cables, which will provide not only voice connectivity but also data access to the global Internet.
“The UMTS Forum’s detailed study indicates that the total mobile market in Africa will grow to 200-million by 2010, a reasonable percentage of which will undoubtedly be 3G users,” says Dr Bernd Eylert, chairperson of the UMTS Forum, which represents another 2.5G technology universal mobile telecommunications service.
The Forum predicts 3G revenues in the continent will exceed $7-billion in 2010 and will be “vital in bridging Africa’s ‘digital divide’, offering a cost-effective route for operators to deliver Internet access to the region”.
“The ability of 3G to deliver advanced high bandwidth services to both urban and rural users quickly, efficiently and inexpensively will ensure that the technology can play a key role in the future development of Africa,” says Eylert.
South African research firm BMI-TechKnowledge puts the growth of mobile markets at 35% or more, and fixed-line growth at 25%.
And South Africa still has a high Internet penetration although its “wired” population is small compared to the United States, Europe or Asia and a thriving Internet industry.
However Mike Myers, MD of Nokia South Africa, warns against the speed trap. As he rightly points out: what will you give consumers when you can give it to them even quicker?
“But what about content? While you have all of these technologies available, what are you going to feed the consumer?” asks Myers.
One idea is location-based services that will match services that the networks or content providers know you like (pre-established) and your location, such as specials from a shop in your favourite mall or a dating game that has become popular in some parts of Europe.
Another is a game called Bot Fighters, released by Swedish company It’s Alive, which is a new kind of paintballing. It lets users locate other players in their area through the game’s website. They then send an SMS to check their target’s physical location and if the target is within range, the player can shoot by sending a “fire” SMS.
“From a technology point of view, most things can be done today. The people who can market and innovate content will start to come to the fore. People get hung up on technology, it’s all about content. The guy in the street doesn’t care how you achieve it,” says Myers.
He mentions one particular example where a health organisation in Finland is using a remote system to check on patients who plug themselves into monitors that capture their vital statistics and SMS them to their doctor. Based on their heart pressure, say, the doctor will send them an SMS asking them to come in for a physical check-up.
Such services as well as the Internet’s killer application, e-mail would be an obvious boon for South Africa’s rural population or the millions of cell users who have a phone but no other telecoms interface.
Whether Africa can benefit from a ramp up on to a super-fast network is debatable, but what is certain is that the sun will continue to rise.