The Irish go back to the polls Saturday to vote a second time on the Nice treaty on EU enlargement, in a crucial referendum that could make or break the European Union’s bold plans to expand into the once-communist east.
Polls open across Ireland at 9:00 am (0800 GMT), and will remain open for 12 hours, though the final results will not be known before late on Sunday afternoon, government officials said. Closely watching the outcome will be 10 nations in eastern Europe and the Mediterranean which hope to join Europe’s exclusive club of rich states in 2004.
Prime Minister Bertie Ahern, who has promised his fellow European leaders to deliver a Yes verdict, has described Saturday’s referendum as nothing less than ”a date with history.” Ireland is the only EU nation where the Nice treaty — a complicated set of reforms to enable the EU to function with a potential 27 member states — is subject to a constitutional referendum.
But its ratification was foiled in a first Irish referendum on the subject in June last year in which 54% voted No, sending shockwaves through European capitals and calling enlargement into question.
Public opinion polls earlier this week suggested that the Yes camp — which includes Ireland’s top political parties and business, farm and labor groups — were in the lead with 42%, against 29% inclined to vote No.
But with a high number of undecided voters, political analysts reckoned that a turnout of at least 45% — compared to 34% 16 months ago — would be necessary to secure a Yes victory.
Nearly three million Irish are registed to vote. While the Irish are broadly in favor of EU enlargement, the No camp –includings Greens, Socialists and Sinn Fein nationalists — says the Nice treaty is a Trojan horse for greater control from Brussels over Irish affairs. There is particular concern that Ireland’s long-held policy of neutrality will be compromised by a common European foreign and security policy and by the formation of a 60 000-man EU rapid reaction military force.
In Paris on Friday, European Commission President Romano Prodi said another Irish rejection of the Nice treaty — named for the French city where it was drafted by EU leaders in December 2000 — would be ”a tragedy.”
But he added: ”I am very optimistic because everyone is aware of the importance of the Irish vote… It is all Europe that is waiting for the democratic expression of the Irish people.” In Hanover, Germany, Danish Prime Minister Anders Rasmussen — whose nation holds the rotating EU presidency — said another setback in Ireland would trigger an ”unprecedented crisis” within the bloc.
Last week the European Commission said Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, plus the Mediterranean islands of Cyprus and Malta, were on track to join the EU.
In an ironic twist, they would be joining the bloc in the first half of 2004 — when it is Ireland’s turn at the agenda-setting EU presidency.
Romania and Bulgaria have also been negotiation with Brussels, but they are unlikely to join the EU before 2007. – Sapa-AFP