South Africa’s splintered opposition is set for further fragmentation, with the Democratic Alliance facing wholesale bloodletting at municipal level.
At the same time the African National Congress is largely insulated from the impact of defections because of the size of its municipal majorities. The party could feed off United Democratic Movement defections, particularly in the Eastern Cape. And any floor-crossing from the DA to the New National Party will indirectly strengthen the ANC because of the latter’s ”cooperation pact” with the Nats.
This is the implication of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa’s (Idasa) analysis of the possible fallout from floor-crossing legislation, which is due for gazetting on Friday and provides for a 15-day period of free movement among parties.
Idasa’s executive director, Paul Graham, pointed out that the ANC was largely immune because its majority fell below 20% in very few councils. The impact of party defections would be mainly felt in DA-controlled municipalities.
Idasa has published data showing that DA control of 16 councils — mostly in the Western Cape — could be in jeopardy if a single NNP-nominated councillor defects.
The NNP wants to claw back about 600 councillors who fought the 2000 municipal elections under DA colours, and will forge ruling alliances with the ANC where possible.
Graham says some councillors may leave the ANC to create local parties. However, such secessions probably required local leaders who were confident, able to survive without national or provincial support, and had strong local constituencies.
”Our guess is that these conditions only apply in economically powerful municipalities on the periphery of the metros — so are very limited in number.”
He argues that the prime motive for floor-crossing will be to join a party that can govern alone or in coalition. Principle would not play much of a role, except among ”staunch NNP members wishing to reassert their identity”.
The prize is the Cape Town unicity, which the DA dominates by 107 seats — 37 from the Democratic Party — to the ANC’s 77. DP sources say 15 councillors will definitely cross to the NNP, giving the NNP/ANC alliance 92 seats and the DA 92.
Smaller parties have 16 councillors, with the largest bloc held by the African Christian Democratic Party, which could jump either way.
The others, including the UDM and the Pan Africanist Congress could collectively determine which bloc dominates.
Among unicity councillors likely to switch back to the NNP are former NNP organiser Werner Schwella, former Oostenberg deputy mayor Abrie Hanekom, Ewald Groenewald from Tygerberg, former housing executive committee chairperson Gawa Samuels, Koos Brendenhand and Frank Gatuza.
Gatuza, from DP lists, Samuels and Brendenhand, from NNP lists, were dropped as exco members in December 2001 when the ANC won a battle for representation on the exco. Their salaries are estimated to have dropped by at least half — putting their political noses out of joint.
The main areas of potential gain for the NNP/ANC alliance outside Cape Town are the West Coast, Bergriver, Saldanha Bay, Boland, Stellenbosch, Drakenstein and Oudtshoorn, where the DA holds power by narrow margins.
The ANC has promised that if Cape Town falls, the NNP will get the deputy mayor’s post — which could go to former local government MEC Willem Doman or his predecessor, Pierre Uys.
This week Doman moved to the National Assembly, switching places with Kobus Dowry, seen as a necessary coloured face in Western Cape Premier Marthinus van Schalkwyk’s new provincial team.
If the NNP/ANC alliance snatches Cape Town, the new mayor will be from the ANC. It is likely to be either Nomaindia Mfeketo, former mayor until 2000, or exco councillor without portfolio Saleem Mowzer.
In the Durban metropole, floor-crossing is likely to consolidate precarious ANC control threatened by a fall-out with its coalition partner, Amichand Rajbansi’s Minority Front. The ANC holds 94 of 200 possible seats and the MF 10.
After Nelson Mandela’s intervention, the MF-ANC breach looks set to be healed. But given that eight of the DA councillors were nominated by the NNP, defections could allow the ANC/NNP to rule without Rajbansi.
In theory, the ANC is vulnerable in two North West councils. Lucas Mangope’s UCDP holds 24 of 56 seats in Mafikeng, requiring four defections to unseat the ANC, and seven of 18 in Kagisano.
Ruling DA partnerships with the Inkatha Freedom Party could be at risk in the two KwaZulu-Natal councils held by narrow majorities, Ladysmith and Margate/Port Shepstone.
However, the NNP’s KwaZulu-Natal leader Tino Volker, said NNP-nominated councillors were not likely to realign themselves, as alliances in these areas were dictated by local conditions.
In Gauteng, where the NNP received only 15% of DA seats in the 2000 election, floor-crossing is unlikely to make much impact.
However, some DP councillors could cross to the ANC. It is understood some disaffected black members of the DA’s Johannesburg caucus are contemplating such a move.
The DA leader in Johannesburg, Mike Moriarty, recently survived a challenge from senior member Ray Barrell. Barrell’s manifesto before an internal election, which he lost by 25 to 40 votes, suggests disgruntlement within DA ranks over Moriarty’s ”autocratic” style.
In the Eastern Cape, the UDM is set to shed councillors to the ANC, while any reverse movement is unlikely. The UDM is highly vulnerable in Umtata, its only council nationwide, which it controls with 33 of 64 seats.