The reintroduction of the old political game of musical chairs — put on hold since 1994 but reintroduced from Friday — is expected to hit the New National Party the hardest in the national Parliament. But it could have unpredictable ramifications for the Democratic Alliance.
It has emerged that some MPs elected on a Democratic Party ticket in 1999 are considering staying with the DP — seen as more liberal — and not shifting to the Democratic Alliance, formed after they were elected.
They include veteran Colin Eglin, a former leader of the opposition; Mike Waters; finance spokeswoman Raenette Taljaard; Mike Lowe and Mike Ellis. But their personal loyalty to DA leader Tony Leon may dictate their final decision.
Taljaard and Lowe were disciplined after not voting for the package of defection laws passed by Parliament this week and signed into law by President Thabo Mbeki on Wednesday night.
And former NNP minister and DA MP Tertius Delport has apparently been making overtures to the African Christian Democratic Party after losing the battle for the DA Eastern Cape leadership.
While the political propaganda machines will be working overtime in the next 15 days — the window period for the first crossing open to MPs — and incoming Western Cape Premier and NNP leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk will be focusing his spin on defections at municipal level, his party is likely to face the heaviest onslaught at national level.
Most defections affecting the 13 parties in the National Assembly are expected to be movements from the NNP to the DA.
It is widely expected that NNP caucus leader Sheila Camerer, who led the DA caucus before the messy DA split in December — will cross to the DA.
While DA sources say up to 10 people from the NNP’s 28-member caucus will cross to them, individual members are keeping mum.
But Camerer is known to be a close friend of DA leader Tony Leon and threw a joint birthday party with him — they share a birthday — in December 2000 when they were DA members. And Camerer’s marginalisation within the NNP was underscored this week when Boy Geldenhuys was appointed NNP acting parliamentary leader, over her head and against party tradition that the caucus chair be promoted.
Van Schalkwyk is believed to have offered her an ambassador’s post — but this would provide a four-year posting only. Camerer was also visibly unexcited about the break with the DP/DA after an NNP federal council meeting last year.
Another likely defector to the DA is Craig Morkel, son of Gerald and brother of DA Cape Town executive committee member Kent Morkel. Old NNP hands Sakkie Pretorius and Frik van Deventer, former party organisers from the PW Botha era, are expected to remain loyal. But both are rumoured to have been offered diplomatic posts.
Van Deventer is expected to retire in 2004, while Pretorius may accept a posting, if Van Schalkwyk can deliver it as part of his ongoing political mating dance with the ANC.
Veteran MP Renier Schoeman, until now part of the inner leadership and fiercely loyal to Van Schalkwyk, also appears to have been overlooked for elevation as parliamentary acting leader. But his loyalty is likely to keep him on NNP benches.
Dirk Bakker is one of Van Schalkwyk’s most favoured — and younger — MPs, and serves as a senior whip. He is expected to remain loyal to the cause, as is Johan Durand from Gauteng.
But Dr Kobus Gous, the NNP’s health spokesperson, and Charles Redcliffe, trade and industry spokesperson, are understood to have been wooed by several parties, including the DA. Redcliffe was recently moved from the Western Cape legislature after displaying loyalty to the Morkel faction.
Former NNP MEC for Housing Cecil Herandien, who was also moved to Parliament, seems unsure of his future.
Anna van Wyk, former adviser to ex-leader FW de Klerk, is believed to have held discussions with the Inkatha Freedom Party. The IFP voted against the floor-crossing legislation, which it described as immoral and a breach of the voters’ 1999 mandate.
Alie van Jaasveld and Wilhelm le Roux, both Eastern Cape NNP stalwarts, are rumoured to favour crossing either to the DA or the United Democratic Movement. The UDM also opposed the crossing legislation on principle. Similarly, finance spokesperson Pierre Rabie is known to be hedging his bets, but may be a potential defector.
Pierre Uys, accused by fellow MP Martha Olckers of changing his mind several times about whether he was in the Van Schalkwyk or Morkel factions, still appears uncertain about his future. It is understood he spoke to DA strategists this week.
Francois Beukman, the new parliamentary public accounts chair- person, has already received his reward for loyalty to Van Schalkwyk — and is likely to stay put.
While other parties in the National Assembly are unlikely to be much affected, some ANC MPs from three ANC-controlled provinces — Mpu-malanga, Limpopo and Eastern Cape — have approached the UDM.
The Afrikaner Eenheidsbeweging’s sole MP, Cassie Aucamp, is to join the National Christian Forum, to be launched this weekend.
The IFP and DA have agreed not to bleed members into one another.
The DA has 38 MPs in Parliament, the NNP 28 — with a possible bleeding of at least eight — and the IFP 33. While a shift of eight to 10 MPs could change the status of the official opposition, this is deemed unlikely.
The ANC may well gain ground. Nelson Mandela often warned that floor-crossing could cripple the opposition.
Among MPs who have shown some interest in the ANC are the IFP’s Farouk Cassim and the UDM’s Salamuddi Abram. While the Pan Africanist Congress’s Patricia de Lille has been vigorously wooed by the DA, she is believed to be sticking to her political guns.
Members of the national council of provinces cannot move, as they represent the proportions of parties in the nine provincial legislatures.