Talk is growing in Democratic Alliance and Inkatha Freedom Party circles of a deal which could push the two parties into government in KwaZulu-Natal in an anti-African National Congress alliance — particularly if they retain the seats of four of their defectors.
The speculation comes at a time when relations between the IFP and the African National Congress — currently coalition partners in KwaZulu-Natal — are at rock-bottom.
Provincial ANC chairperson S’bu Ndebele, backed by Minister of Justice and Constitutional Development Penuell Maduna, announced this week the government would act to protect the seats of five KwaZulu-Natal legislature members who crossed to the ANC in June. The defectors, including IFP members Mike Tarr and Maurice Mackenzie, would swing the province to the ANC.
Nbebele is widely seen as coveting the KwaZulu-Natal premier’s job, currently held by the IFP’s Lionel Mtshali.
However, the IFP’s national council has decided it will not touch an ANC government formed with defectors’ help. Spokesman Musa Zondi confirmed this week that if the ANC formed a government based on defections, “we will move into opposition”.
Zondi was careful to skirt speculation about a possible IFP-DA deal. However, DA federal executive chairperson James Selfe confirmed that the party’s joint committee comprising members of both its federal executive and its KwaZulu-Natal provincial executive had considered the possibility of IFP/ DA cooperation on a hypothetical basis.
“There is always talk about coalitions and in principle we are interested in cooperative arrangements to reduce the hegemony of the ANC,” said Selfe.
The IFP and DA already work together in local governments in KwaZulu-Natal. But Selfe said the DA was interested “not just in being in government, but also in achieving our political objectives by being in government”.
He pointed out that Parliament would have to pass a motion of no confidence in the existing KwaZulu-Natal government involving technicalities “which would be difficult to overcome”. This could mean that the IFP would have to pass a motion of no confidence in its own premier and current IFP/ANC members of the executive council.
The possibility of a reconfigured IFP-led government, including the DA, could rest on what happens to four defectors to the ANC.
They may have made the critical mistake of announcing their defection shortly before the United Democratic Movement managed to have the defection legislation delayed in the Cape High Court.
The Constitutional Court last week blocked national and provincial defections, ruling that the floor-crossing law was not passed in reasonable time. It shielded defectors from party discipline only until October 23, when floor crossing closes.
Maduna’s spokesperson, Paul Setsetse, said a draft constitutional amendment was expected to be gazetted on Friday, but would take at least 60 days to enact. It is understood that the state will ask the courts to extend the protection of the floor-crossers, based on the amendment. KwaZulu-Natal DA leader Roger Burrows said his party would fight this.
The IFP currently has 34 seats, with 34 held by an ANC-Minority Front alliance. With the defectors, the ANC would outnumber the IFP 39 to 32.
Burrows said his party would definitely be ousting its two defectors after the window period for crossings.
Asked if that could mean a DA/IFP government, he said that until now the provincial government was a coalition between the ANC and IFP.
“Should that situation change, it will be because one or both of those parties have brought that coalition to an end. That situation has not yet occurred.”
An indication of the strong feelings about the matter are encapsulated in the words of IFP leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi who said before the court ruled last week that regardless of the judgement, “there is no doubt that throughout the country a wave of moral indignation has already risen against the legislation”.
This week Ndebele reversed the charge by accusing Inkatha of being coalition breakers. The IFP had indicated that the ANC was no longer its preferred partner, he said, hinting it was looking at a deal with the DA.
Ndebele warned an Inkatha-DA marriage would have “serious repercussions at the national level” — suggesting IFP national Cabinet members might be ousted.
Zondi dismissed this, accusing Ndebele of “putting words in our mouth”.