For a man charged with leading a government of more than 10 discordant parties and several former ministers with questionable pasts, Kenya’s president-elect, Mwai Kibaki, made a feeble impression this week.
Looking tired, with a dislocated ankle, a broken arm, and a cracked neck, the 71-year-old Kibaki was making only his fourth public appearance in a month, and it was a brief one.
He incurred his fractures in a car crash on the campaign trail, but any sympathy that injury has brought has not allayed the fear that he will prove too weak to run his government, let alone deliver Kenyans from poverty and corruption.
Kibaki’s National Rainbow Coalition (Narc) was formed two months ago when half of President Daniel arap Moi’s ministers jumped ship to board his flimsy alliance.
Outside the smart Nairobi hotel where he was declared elected, thousands of poor Kenyans celebrated an end to Moi’s tyrannous regime.
But inside was a different scene.
Narc’s leading lights slapped backs and cracked jokes at Moi’s expense. Little was said about the looting that characterised his 24 years in power or the state-sponsored tribal violence that cost 3 000 lives before Kenya’s two previous elections.
But how could it have been otherwise? Alongside Kibaki — who served as Moi’s vice-president for a decade — sat George Saitoti, who as finance minister was implicated in looting at least £250-million in one scam in the early 1990s.
Behind him sat William ole Ntimama, who was named by independent investigators the previous week in connection with the tribal clashes.
Struggling for something positive to say, a Western diplomat picked out Kibaki as a man ”who might care about Kenya’s future”.
Narc has not much improved on its reputation. Its campaign was haphazard and its candidates responsible for electoral violence. Yet analysts remain optimistic about Kenya’s prospects. Even if its leaders are the same politicians who once plundered the state, Kenya is considered to be changing.
Change was demanded by Western donors weary of corruption four years ago, when they froze aid. Kibaki has vowed to get it unfrozen by passing two anti-corruption bills that were sabotaged by Moi.
Change is also demanded by Kenyans: in the decade since multi-party democracy was introduced an independent press has urged them to demand their rights. By voting out Kanu, the party that ruled unchallenged since independence in 1963, they have done so.
Yashpal Ghai, a leading constitutional lawyer, has watched the change. Charged with drafting a new constitution to break the dictatorial powers of the presidency, he spent two years consulting Kenyans. Moi hijacked Ghai’s draft constitution, but Kibaki has vowed to implement it within weeks. A democratic constitution and weighty anti-corruption laws would transform Kenya.
Without the benefit of Moi’s patronage network — with its corrupt judiciary and criminal businessmen — he will need the new senior posts provided by Ghai’s constitution to satisfy his unruly supporters.
Kibaki has promised to stand down at the next election.
His reputation for indolence — he seems happiest when seen with a golf club or a glass in his hand — and his current frailty suggest that he will. — Â