The looming war on Iraq, coupled with calls for the re-acceptance of Pakistan into the Commonwealth fold, had helped cement an Afro-Asian alliance on Zimbabwe, diplomats said.
Wide-ranging interviews with diplomatic representatives of African and Asian countries confirmed that the bulk of Commonwealth members do not favour further sanctions against Zimbabwe when the Commonwealth “troika” meets to review its suspension from the organisation in March.
South African and Nigerian officials said they felt it would be counter-productive to “burn bridges”.
An Asian diplomat indicated that all the Afro-Asian members believed Zimbabwe should find its own solution. While acknowledging that law and order had broken down in the country, they supported continued negotiations for a ruling coalition of Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
Diplomatic sources said the perception that Britain and Australia, as allies of the United States, favoured war against Iraq’s Saddam Hussein had cemented an emotional alignment of Third World members of the Commonwealth. The bulk of Commonwealth members oppose the war.
A further factor, which had strongly influenced India, was Australia’s reported support at a meeting of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group in November last year for the lifting of Pakistan’s suspension from the Commonwealth .
Indian newspaper reports claim Australia and Bangladesh lobbied hard on Pakistan’s behalf, while India, backed by Nigeria and Botswana, called for the suspension to be maintained.
Pakistan was suspended from the Commonwealth after the 1999 military coup that brought General Pervez Musharraf to power.
The Australian High Commissioner to South Africa, Ian Wilcock, dismissed the reports. Wilcock said Australia had supported Pakistan’s suspension last year, but had wanted an acknowledgement that Musharraf had tried to introduce certain democratic changes.
Perceptions of Australian double standards have affected attitudes more generally in the Commonwealth. This is borne out by a document on the Zimbabwe crisis penned by African National Congress Youth League leader Malusi Gigaba and circulated within the ANC last month. In this, Gigaba accuses Australia of “hypocrisy” on Pakistan.
Senior African diplomats believe that only a total economic meltdown in Zimbabwe will force Zanu-PF to make the policy concessions demanded by the outside world.
They fear further isolating the Zimbabwean regime.
“A solution will come about when there is a total breakdown of the socio-economic structures in the country. Zanu-PF will have to take a position or the people will act,” said one diplomat.
The troika, chaired by Australian leader John Howard and including President Thabo Mbeki and Nigerian leader Olusegun Obasanjo, suspended Zimbabwe’s membership in March last year after a violent and hotly disputed presidential election.
Australian diplomats refused to speculate on the stance Howard would take at the meeting. However, they alluded to his demand for tougher sanctions at the last troika meeting in Abuja last September.
Reacting, MDC secretary general Welshman Ncube agreed Zimbabwe was heading for “a total breakdown”, but added: “We don’t know when — in a month, a year … There will be a limit to how much the Zimbabweans can take.”
Ncube called on the Commonwealth troika to impose travel sanctions and to freeze the assets of the members of ruling Zanu-PF, as the European Union had done.