The African Union (AU) is being urged to begin new mediation efforts in Zimbabwe as power-brokers in the ruling Zanu-PF party reportedly resume plans to ease out President Robert Mugabe.
The respected International Crisis Group (ICG) has said from its base in Brussels that AU efforts should be aimed at restoring the legitimacy of the Harare government.
African expert Richard Cornwell at the Institute for Security Studies agrees with the ICG’s analysis that Zanu PF is splitting as the leadership explores ‘soft landing†retirement scenarios for Mugabe.
‘The Mugabe regime is being increasingly heavy-handed with the opposition, locking up and torturing no fewer than eight MPs,†Cornwell said. ‘The treason trial of Morgan Tsvangirai has tied up the MDC [Movement for Democratic Change] leadership in court.
‘The government is refusing to give the opposition the voters’ roll for two forthcoming by-elections and is packing these seats. The aim is to get a two-thirds majority in the Assembly so that it can do what it likes with the Constitution.â€
Cornwell said the purpose of that is to remove the requirement for Mugabe’s successor to call elections within 90 days.
Emmerson Mnangagwa, the Speaker, who is Mugabe’s favoured successor, is not popular in the party and would not survive an election.
The ICG laments the fact that the international community — including the European Union and the Commonwealth — is divided over Zimbabwe in the face of this crisis.
‘As long as the international community is split, Mugabe will win the public relations and political battle,†says ICG Africa programme co-director John Prendergast.
‘A fresh effort is urgently needed to try to resolve Zimbabwe’s political crisis, in particular by restarting negotiations between the Zanu-PF and the MDC.â€
The ruling party walked out on the talks — brokered by South Africa and Zimbabwe — when the MDC went to court to challenge the legitimacy of last year’s election.
New talks should be called under EU or Commonwealth auspices, says the ICG.
These should build on the work done by presidents Thabo Mbeki and Olusegun Obasanjo, but involve another country such as Senegal or Kenya.