The African National Congress could emerge with an overall majority in the Western Cape with expected defections from the New National Party bolstering their numbers in the legislature.
While ANC representative Gert Witbooi said he could not confirm any defections at this stage, he said announcements could be made during the 15-day defection period which began on Friday and ends on Friday April 4. The Afrikaans press has reported that it was possible that three New National Party members — Ebrahim Isaacs, Nic Isaacs and Abe Williams — could join the ANC.
This would take ANC numbers to 21 of 42 in the legislature. It would then need just one more opposition member to join the party to have an overall majority with 22 seats.
At present the Democratic Party (the lead party in the Democratic Alliance) has five seats. It is expected to welcome three defectors on Monday afternoon from the New National Party, its former ally, which now has a working agreement with the ANC. The three defections will take its seat tally to eight.
The New National Party, which holds half of the cabinet posts in the legislature, including the premiership under its party leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk, is set to be reduced from 17 to 14 on Monday afternoon.
If the other three cross to the ANC, it will be reduced to 11. That will mean that the DA will be only three seats short of becoming the second largest party in the house. This could have major repercussions for the NNP. Ebrahim Rasool, the ANC provincial leader and finance minister, told Die Burger that if there were
further NNP defections this would have implications for the power balance which
sees the ANC sharing power equally with the NNP.
ANC sources indicated that the agreement was the subject of discussion at leadership level. Meanwhile in KwaZulu Natal, the departure of the Democratic Party’s Omie Singh will not immediately upset the balance of power. But further losses by the lead party, the Inkatha Freedom Party, and the DP, could see the collapse of the IFP-led government which includes the ANC and DP.
At present the IFP has 34 seats in the 80-member legislature. The ANC now has 33 – with the addition of Singh — while the DA has six, having lost its seventh. The UDM is likely to back the DA/IFP power block, just retaining the IFP/DA majority. The ACDP, with one seat, is likely to back the IFP-DA power group. The NNP, with three seats, backs the ANC.
Last year five defectors almost toppled the IFP led government — but they did not enjoy legal protection to cross at the time. These five lost their seats and have since been replaced — by two from the DP, two from the IFP and one from the UDM.
Defectors will now enjoy legal protection without losing their seats until April 4. – I-Net Bridge