An attempt to overhaul his image, inject cash and petrol into the economy and decapitate the opposition is under the way. The Zimbabwean government openly admits that the strategy is unsustainable but Mugabe is hoping to buy time for a controlled exit from power. A five-day general strike last week brought cities to a standstill and prompted an unprecedented security crackdown.
Charm is not something the aloof 79-year-old is known for, but a propaganda drive is attempting to shore up support among loyalists in the country and sympathisers in South Africa.
At a rare public appearance last week in Mamini, north-west of Harare, he voiced defiance and again played the neo-colonial card which resonates with many Africans outside Zimbabwe.
On Sunday, South African television viewers were treated to a softer, gentler Mugabe who, dressed in a smart suit, explained the hard choices faced by a democratically-elected government in a troubled land.
‘It is sad when we are forced as [a] government to have to use tear gas against our own youth who are being misled. But we have to do it in the interest of peace. But we don’t want to make our people suffer,’ Mugabe told SABC television. ‘We suffered enough during colonial times and [now] we want our people to be free, express their free views and feel that the country belongs to them, that they have a stake.’
South Africa’s national broadcaster was a shrewd choice for this rare interview as Pretoria, the region’s dominant economy, has more leverage over Harare than London or Washington. President Thabo Mbeki has not used that leverage, partially because many black South Africans admire Mugabe for redressing colonial injustice.
Harare’s second prong is an emergency fix for an economy in freefall. The government needs cash to pay salaries – not least for the police, soldiers and militia — and fuel.
The Finance Minister, Herbert Murerwa, last week unveiled an astonishing plan: tap revenue from Zimbabweans living abroad. ‘Government is holding discussions with interested parties for purposes of mobilising foreign currency from Zimbabweans in the diaspora,’ he said. That many emigrants left because of Mugabe’s ruinous rule did not seem to dent his confidence. ‘Indications are that a minimum of $1-million can be collected on a weekly basis.’
Local media also reported that the state-owned National Oil Company of Zimbabwe has resumed talks with the Libyan group Tamoil for a new deal to import oil. A barter deal broke down last year when Zimbabwe could not supply enough beef, sugar and tobacco.
Mugabe is considering mortgaging national assets to get the oil, a desperate measure reminiscent of the government of the Central African Republic, which, shortly before being ousted in a coup last year, allegedly granted Libya a 99-year monopoly on mineral reserves. Murerwa admitted: ‘We have virtually moved to the practice of crisis management in place of sustainable planning for development.’
Mugabe wants the time and leverage for a smooth transfer of power which will protect him in retirement from the sort of travails visited on the likes of Pinochet, Honecker and Milosevic.
Rival factions within the ruling Zanu-PF party are angling for succession and Mugabe allegedly wants to cut a deal — immunity from prosecution for atrocities committed during his 23-rule, among other things — with the eventual winner.
The gravest danger is that the successor will turn out to be Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, who has not accepted losing last year’s rigged presidential election.
After a series of one-day general strikes the MDC called last week for a ‘final push’, a five-day set of strikes and street protests to topple the president.
The stayaway turned cities into ghost towns, a telling show of support, but the police, army and Zanu-PF militia swept demonstrations from the streets, with 814 arrested. Many had bruises and broken limbs to accompany tales of torture, with at least one confirmed death. It was also alleged that MDC activists stoned to death a man suspected of belonging to Zanu-PF.
Mugabe is also harassing opposition leaders. Tsvangirai, already facing trial for treason, was arrested twice last week and on Friday was charged for a second time with treason, allegedly for inciting Mugabe’s overthrow during last year’s elections.
Other senior MDC officials arrested include Japhet Ndabeni-Ncube, the mayor of Bulawayo, and Tendai Biti, a Harare MP.
For analysts the cliche of choice is endgame, and this must surely be the regime’s final phase, but it could last weeks, months, years.
Zimbabwe is locked in a grim stalemate: the opposition has widespread support but cannot muster the sort of protests which toppled Slobodan Milosevic. The president can crush dissent but not control events, so he plays for time, a game he does well. – Guardian Unlimited Â