Mugabe’s exit plan takes shape

The December congress of Zimbabwe’s ruling party is likely to take a crucial first step towards President Robert Mugabe’s exit from power, the Mail & Guardian has learned.

Well-placed sources in Zimbabwe said Mugabe was expected to step down at the Zanu-PF conference. This would occur in time for a crucial Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, which African leaders do not want dominated by another divisive debate on Zimbabwe.

In addition, Zimbabwe’s churches have emerged as key facilitators in tentative initial contacts between Zanu-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).

In a significant sign, the country’s state media have begun writing openly about a successor to Mugabe, urging senior party leaders to state their interest in the top job to fend off a potentially damaging succession battle.

The election of a new leader at the Zanu-PF congress could pave the way for a change of president by June next year — a pledge made by President Thabo Mbeki in his meeting with United States President George W Bush last week.

The June 2004 exit was first publicised at the World Economic Forum meeting in Durban last month. Despite protestations to the contrary, the M&G this week confirmed with high-level political actors in Zimbabwe and South Africa that Zanu-PF and the MDC are in “talks about talks” — preliminary dealings to set the conditions and framework for substantive negotiations.

Confusion about whether or not the two parties were conducting negotiations arose last week after MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai lashed out at Mbeki for suggesting talks were ongoing.

Tsvangirai later climbed down after party spokesperson Paul Themba Nyathi confirmed talks were in progress. Hardliners on both sides are being excluded as the moderates take centre stage to break the Zimbabwean stalemate.

The secrecy of the talks created uncertainty and insecurity among party members on both sides, who feared being left out of the process.

South African government officials said it was not politic to reveal the names of those involved in the talks, because of their delicate nature.

“We can’t lie about an important matter like this. There are talks, but they are very complex because some people may oppose them,” said a senior government official.

“You must remember that even when South Africa was negotiating its transition, there were elements on all sides who tried to sabotage them. We feel confident that the president’s one-year deadline for change, which he set at the World Economic Forum in Durban last month, is achievable.”

Bush stunned many when he endorsed Mbeki as an honest broker in the Zimbabwean crisis, after the US had been publicly critical before his arrival in South Africa.

Zimbabwean commentators say Mbeki would not have made the concrete pledge, complete with an exit date, if Mugabe had not personally given his word to leave by then.

But yesterday, in what seemed to be a damage-control exercise, Mbeki denied his message to Bush. “There is no such thing. I don’t know where that comes from,” he said in Pretoria.

Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo who, with Mbeki, has been the most prominent mediator, also wants rapid movement on Zimbabwe so that the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Abuja, Nigeria, in December is not swamped by the issue.

South African Council of Churches secretary general Dr Molefe Tsele, who has visited Zimbabwe with Anglican Archbishop Njongonkulu Ndungane, said their counterpart, the Zimbabwe Council of Churches, was providing shuttle diplomacy between the parties.

“Messages have been sent from one group to the other, but not everybody has seen the urgency to negotiate,” Tsele said.

The M&G understands influential Catholic Bishop Father Fidelis Mukonori last week met Tsvangirai after consulting with Zanu-PF. Mukonori is said to have Mugabe’s ear.

Since Archbishop Ndungane’s visit, during which both parties agreed to cooperate with him, the Zimbabwe Council of Churches and the Heads of Christian Denominations have in the past two months met a Zanu-PF delegation that included spokesperson Nathan Shamuyarira and former permanent secretary of foreign affairs Willard Chiwewe, as well as MDC leaders including Tsvangirai, his deputy, Gibson Sibanda, and general secretary Welshman Ncube.

The negotiations are said to have progressed. It is expected that the parties will announce details of terms for substantive talks in the next few weeks.

Zanu-PF supporters say Bush’s endorsement of Mbeki will have the effect of sending the MDC back to the negotiations. While it maintains a facade of radical rhetoric, pressure from the US and Britain to talk turkey is expected to lead the party to seek a negotiated settlement.

In Zimbabwe, the state-owned media, which do not move an inch on major political issues without a government nod, have started interviewing senior Zanu-PF officials about Mugabe’s successor, indicating that the Zimbabwean leader is finally preparing to step down. 

The government’s flagship, the Herald newspaper, has for the past four weeks carried lengthy interviews with senior Zanu-PF leaders, gently urging them to declare whether they are interested in the top job once Mugabe leaves office.

In one interview, Didymus Mutasa, a Zanu-PF stalwart and secretary for its foreign affairs portfolio, surprised readers by saying he was more interested in the vice-president’s job — if it became vacant. 

Zimbabwe has two vice-presidents, Simon Muzenda and Joseph Msika, both appointed to balance regional concerns.  Muzenda, a close confidant of Mugabe since the 1970s liberation war, is from the strong Masvingo province, while Msika, who replaced Joshua Nkomo, represents the interests of the country’s restive Ndebele and Nguni groups. 

But both Muzenda and Msika are older than Mugabe, who is 79 years old. Muzenda says he wants to quit, but will only do so when Mugabe is ready to leave office, raising the possibility of a generation change in Zanu-PF.

Msika, however, does not believe he is too old to pretend to the throne. Of the four senior Zanu-PF leaders interviewed to date, only he has openly said he is ready to succeed Mugabe.

Dumisa Dabengwa, the former Zapu heavyweight, said he would consider “the offer” to become Zimbabwe’s next president only when Mugabe had left office.

Emmerson Mnangagwa, Mugabe’s blue-eyed boy and long considered his preferred successor, said he was not interested in the post because he was intelligent enough “to know that there was no vacancy”.

Mugabe has himself urged Zanu-PF to begin the succession debate. 

While the debate will be thorny, inter-party negotiations are likely to be even more daunting.

The MDC has listed three main demands: that Mugabe leaves office; that a transitional authority is put in place to introduce constitutional reforms to allow

for democracy; and that free and fair elections be held under a new electoral system and international supervision. The MDC also wants treason charges against Tsvangirai dropped.

Zanu-PF has demanded that the MDC recognise Mugabe as a legitimately elected leader. It also wants the MDC to drop its court challenge to the outcome of the 2000 general election. This was won by Zanu-PF, but was widely condemned by observers for not being free and fair.

University of Zimbabwe development studies Professor Brian Rafto-polous confirmed that “low-level” attempts to bring the parties together appeared to have succeeded, but had not yet brought the major adversaries face to face.

“The US has asked Mbeki to work on this issue. But it is important that there is progress, because with Mugabe you are never sure. He could change his mind any time,” Raftopolous said.