South Africa’s CPIX inflation (headline inflation excluding mortgage costs) was up 6,6% year-on-year (y/y) for metro and other areas in July 2003 compared with 6,4% in June, Statistics South Africa said on Tuesday. CPIX was up 1,1% month-on-month (m/m) compared with a 0,3% decline m/m in June.
Headline inflation — the 12-month rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) for metropolitan areas — was up 5,2% y/y in July from 6,7% y/y in June.
The July core inflation rate, which excludes volatile foods, municipal rates and monetary policy changes, rose to 6,2% y/y from 5,6% y/y in June, May’s 6,9% y/y and April’s 8,2% y/y.
CPIX is the inflation measure targeted by the Reserve Bank for purposes of inflation targeting. An I-Net survey showed a median forecast of 6,2% y/y for CPIX. The range was from 5,6% y/y to 6,4% y/y.
The median forecast for the headline July consumer price index (CPI) was 5,1% y/y, with the range of forecasts varying from a high of 5,9% y/y to a low of 4,5% y/y.
The survey for the core consumer inflation rate had a range of 5,2% y/y to 5,8% y/y with a median of 5,5% y/y.
CPI for rural in July is 6,1% y/y and -0,1% m/m, which means the CPI for the total country is 5,6%, while CPIX for the total country is 6,5%.
In June, CPI for rural was 7,5% y/y and rose by 0,2% m/m, while CPI for the total country was 7,1%, and CPIX for the total country was 6,5%.
Statistics South Africa said on Tuesday that the lower annual rate for CPI at July 2003 compared with that at June 2003 can be explained by decreases in the inflation rates for the following:
The CPI for housing for which the rate decreased from 12,2% at June 2003 to a lower rate of 4,9% at July 2003, mainly due to an annual decrease in the price index for interest rates on mortgage bonds.
The CPI for food for which the rate decreased from 8,6% at June 2003 to a lower rate of 7,3% at July 2003.
However, the decreases in the inflation rates were partially counteracted by increases in the inflation rates for the following:
The CPI for cigarettes, cigars and tobacco for which the rate increased from 10,3% at June 2003 to a higher rate of 15,8% at July 2003.
The CPI for communication for which the rate increased from 8,5% at June 2003 to a higher rate of 9,5% at July 2003.
The CPI for household operations for which the rate increased from 2,9% at June 2003 to a higher rate of 3,2% at July 2003.
The CPI for transport for which the rate increased from -1,1% at June 2003 to a higher rate of 1,5% at July 2003.
From June 2003 to July 2003 the consumer price index for the historical metropolitan areas was unchanged, while the seasonally adjusted index decreased by 0,2%.
The annual increase of 5,2% in the consumer price index for the historical metropolitan areas is mainly due to annual increases in the price indices for food (+1,4 percentage points), housing (+1,1 percentage points), medical care and health expenses (+0,7 of a percentage point) and education (+0,4 of a percentage point).
These annual increases were slightly counteracted by an annual decrease in the price index for recreation and entertainment (-0,1 of a percentage point).
The annual increase of 6,6% in the CPIX for the historical metropolitan and other urban areas is mainly due to annual increases in the price indices for food (+2,2 percentage points), housing, excluding interest rates on mortgage bonds (+1,3 percentage points, due to increases in all components in certain areas), medical care and health expenses (+0,7 of a percentage point) and education (+0,4 of a percentage point).
These annual increases were slightly counteracted by an annual decrease in the price index for recreation and entertainment (-0,1 of a percentage point). — I-Net Bridge