For those choosing to repatriate funds in terms of the tax amnesty, the question becomes where best to stash the cash: money market funds, unit trusts, gold or property?
Derek Sumption, a director of Brantam Financial Services, says about half the clients he has counselled on the amnesty intend repatriating their funds. He advises using the funds to reduce debt first, but choosing where to invest the balance is a tough call.
“There’s been a lot of talk that gold is likely to outperform over the next few years and we have sympathy with that view. But we think equities could struggle over the next few years, and South African interest rates are falling, which makes cash less attractive.
“Real estate is performing reasonably well, but residential property is beginning to look expensive. Making a call in this market is like piloting a Jumbo on to the runway with no lights to guide us.
“Those prepared to take a five-year view should go for a diversified portfolio, bearing in mind that equities could drop over the short- to medium-term.”
Clive Roffey of Share Action, who correctly called the turn in the gold market two years ago, advises clients to sell non-gold equities and buy gold shares and Kruggerrands. Gold is a natural hedge against dollar weakness and economic uncertainty.
Nigel Scott of the Wealth Corporation says there is no single answer to financial planning, as each person has different needs, aspirations and net worth. Those with rand expenses should repatriate sufficient funds to cover these. “But if you don’t need the money in rands, my advice is to leave it offshore and pay the 10% levy as the exchange rate is not favourable at present,” says Scott.
Repaying debt is an attractive use of funds at present, unless the alternative earns substantially more than the current prime rate of 12,5%.
Says Scott: “An investor looking for higher growth would obviously be advised to go for a heavier weighting in equities, whether local or international, as these have traditionally outperformed other asset classes. But they must be prepared to accept the risk, particularly as equity markets have already registered strong growth this year and there is a fear that they may be due for a downturn.”
For those closer to retirement, repatriating funds will allow them to earn higher rates of interest than they currently earn abroad. They should also look at some form of capital protection or guarantee, now offered by most investment houses.
Bryan Hirsch, CEO of Pioneer Financial Planning, says there is a good case for repatriating funds given the ability to earn higher interest locally to offset the rising cost of living in South Africa.
The nearly 50% appreciation in the rand since January last year has punished those relying on offshore income to pay bills locally, aggravated by the negligible interest earned on offshore savings relative to South Africa.
Hirsch says there is an argument for repatriating funds over the next 18 to 24 months: not only do investors pay 5% rather than the 10% levy applying to funds left offshore, they also get the benefits of higher domestic interest rates.
The rand would have to depreciate by 14% over the next 18 months to beat a 6% annual after-tax return (equal to 9% over 18 months, plus the 5% saving on levies for those who repatriate funds, gives a total of 14%).
But don’t count on the rand remaining strong forever.
First National Bank chief economist Cees Bruggermans argues that once there are signs of an economic upturn in the United States and Europe, accompanied by rising interest rates, international investors will lose interest in South Africa and the rand could weaken to below R10 to the dollar. However, this may not happen any time soon as there are no firm signs of a sustained recovery in the US.
It’s a certainty that the rand will resume its downward trend against the world’s major currencies at some point over the next few years, so it makes sense to keep some funds in hard currencies. Most financial advisers recommend hedging against current market uncertainties by way of a well-diversified portfolio.
Ricardo Teixiera, specialised wealth manager at m Cubed, says the normal rules of financial planning apply to funds applying for amnesty. “These funds are already invested, either in property, cash accounts, bonds or unit trusts, so an investment decision has already been made.
“The question to ask is whether the money is needed [locally] and, if not, is the individual prepared to pay the 10% levy to keep the funds offshore?” says Texiera. “This 10% is not sufficiently large to affect the investment decision.”
In other words, if the investment is performing, leave it where it is.
Teixeira believes most South Africans who stashed funds abroad will want to keep them there. “They originally moved funds offshore to diversify their portfolios and it is unlikely that motivation will be changed by the amnesty.