Whoever was in charge of the draw for Rugby World Cup 2003 knew more than a little about the game. He, she or they organised it so that all eight of the founding unions of the International Rugby Board (IRB) would make it through to the quarterfinals and that the northern and southern hemisphere sides would be kept apart in the semifinals, guaranteeing a Six Nations vs Tri-Nations decider in the final.
The draw for the 1999 tournament was a joke in comparison, reliant as it was on getting eight qualifiers from five groups of four, and thereby introducing the bizarre scenario of playoff matches for the three missing slots.
It also failed to appreciate the necessity of keeping north and south apart at the semifinal stage, which allowed France to embarrass New Zealand in a breathtaking match at Twickenham. So now that we are down to the last four, let’s acknowledge the cold-eyed sceptic who got us to the situation where Australia play New Zealand and England play France.
Computers may have promoted Ireland way beyond their capabilities to third place in the world rankings, and romantics who view the world through green and gold spectacles may have believed that the Springboks had a chance, but everyone else knows that the balance of world power is truly reflected in the last four.
France and England swap Grand Slams on a regular basis and New Zealand win the Tri-Nations every year. Occasionally the honour goes to Australia, but South Africa have won it just once, in 1998.
So let’s stop all this nonsense about how Wales and Scotland gave Australia and England a fright and admit that the tournament has reached its penultimate week without providing a single shock result. And what that means, of course, is that there won’t be a shock in the entire tournament because from here on in everybody can beat everybody else.
All that any tipster has to work out is the odds against the two tournament favourites — New Zealand and England — reaching the final.
Given the way that both sides have played hitherto, the IRB draw genius may finally be made to sweat on these two fixtures, for England have been a shadow of the team that overwhelmed the rest of the world between November 2002 and June 2003, and the All Blacks are far from being the world beaters that Corne Krige claims them to be.
A home advantage for Australia in Sydney may well prove decisive at this stage, for while Eddie Jones’s men were abject for 40 minutes against Scotland, the reintroduction of Stirling Mortlock to the team has given the back line its missing steel.
Furthermore, the Wallabies’ much-maligned pack is good enough against an equally ordinary All Black eight, which has nothing to match the ball-winning ability of Phil Waugh, however Richie McCaw fans might wish to argue.
What really gives Australia a fighting chance, however, is the fact that their players are used to sticking to a game plan, unlike the Springboks who spent a week preparing pick and drive tactics, then froze on the day and sent the ball wide for no good reason.
From hereon in it’s all about discipline and though England were expected to have the exclusive concession on that rare commodity before the tournament, the team that is now feared by everyone is France, the only one capable of mixing discipline with a liberal dose of flair.
Throughout their rugby history France have tended to achieve the most when they had a true general at scrumhalf. In the 1970s it was the diminutive Jacques Foroux, in the 1980s it was Pierre Berbizier and for the past five years it has been Fabien Galthie.
Galthie is the exception to most rules. He will go down in history as one of the few to play at four World Cups, but he only really matured as a player in his late twenties. His time has come because he hung around long enough to lead a team blessed with a hugely experienced pack and a gifted generation of youngsters in the back line.
The combination of Galthie and flyhalf Frederick Michalak is everything that Joost van der Westhuizen and Derick Hougaard promised to be, but was demonstrably not. By the time the final whistle blows in Sydney we may be forced to replace the name of Wilkinson and add that of Michalak to the epithet of world’s best flyhalf.
Which is not to say that England don’t have a chance. Far from it. But to beat this French side at this time they need to play at the level they achieved with 13 men against the All Blacks in Wellington earlier this year — and that may be asking too much. Who would have thought it; a repeat of the 1999 final, this time with the winners dressed in blue. Maybe the draw wasn’t crooked after all.