Africa’s largest country is finally moving towards an end to the continent’s longest-running civil war.
Sudan is twice the size of South Africa and bigger than Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda combined. It has been locked in civil war between the Muslim north and Christian south for 36 of its 47 years of independence. More than two million people have died in the conflict.
Several African nations have had a stab at mediating peace. But it was not until tests showed that Sudan was awash with oil that the international community really started working towards a settlement.
Last month the government and the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) agreed for the first time on a deadline for signing a power-sharing accord.
This prompted rebel leader John Garang to predict that the war will be over by Christmas.
United States Secretary of State Colin Powell made a whistle-stop call on the Sudanese peace talks in the Kenyan town of Naivasha. His visit was designed to prod the participants to accept the few outstanding points in a deal that would see a six-year transition leading up to a referendum that would allow the southerners to secede.
In terms of the agreement, the government will withdraw 80% of its troops in the south and the SPLM/A will not be required to disarm.
While this may sound generous to the rebels, it merely reflects the reality that Sudan is effectively two countries with the SPML/A controlling the south — to the extent that it offers tourist packages.
There are still considerable hurdles — the status of the capital Khartoum being one. Garang wants it to be secular, while the government is adamant that it remain under sharia law.
The problem is further confused by the rebellion of Darfur on the western border with Chad. A ceasefire there has been extended until December. The government has tended to come down harder against Darfur rebels who took to arms because of drought and banditry in the region.
Even if peace does come by Christmas, Sudan faces a humanitarian and social mountain. In addition to the returning 570 000 refugees there are between three and four million internally displaced persons, who could fall prey to the groups who never made it to negotiations.
Humanitarian organisations and intergovernmental bodies like the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees fear that the parties’ preoccupation with the politics of a settlement has blinkered them to the humanitarian needs.
”The political agenda is so dominant in our thinking,” said Elijah Molok of the SPLM/A’s humanitarian wing. ”Everyone is focusing on signing peace, not the internally displaced persons.”