The actual area South African commercial maize farmers have devoted to maize during the current 2003/04 season is expected to be 2,55-million hectares, down 6,4% from the 2,724-million hectares farmers intended to plant in November, a survey of 22 grain traders shows.
On Tuesday, January 20, at 1430 the Crop Estimates Committee (CEC) will release its preliminary area estimates for the summer crops and the sixth winter crop production estimates for the 2003/04 season.
Market expectation of 2,55-million hectares would be the lowest area planted in 52 seasons or since 1951/52, the furthest back that records date.
The key reason for the expected decline in actual maize plantings, from intended plantings, is the dry spell in South Africa’s maize belt — that ran from late November to just before Christmas.
The low maize price earlier in the season forced farmers to plan to plant less maize than the 2002/03 season, when 3,185-million hectares was planted.
Farmers are also likely to have switched some of the area they previously devoted to maize to other summer crops like sunflower seed, sorghum and soyabeans.
The views of 22 traders surveyed ranged from 2,4-million to 2,72-million tons, with 11 traders seeing the maize area between 2,5-million and 2,6-million hectares, seven traders called the area from 2,62-million to 2,72-million hectares, and four players expected plantings in a range from 2,4-million to 2,46-million tons.
At its November meeting, the CEC put the ratio of white to yellow maize plantings at 65:35, while traders surveyed saw that ratio changing to 64:36.
White maize plantings are seen at 1,632-million hectares, down 10,6% from the CEC’s November number of 1,826-million hectares, while yellow maize plantings are expected to be 918 000 hectares, down 6% from 977 000 hectares.
The majority of South Africa’s maize is planted in the Mpumalanga, North-West and Free State provinces.
Plantings of maize in Mpumalanga are expected to be close to the intentions of 497 700 hectares, while the area in both the Free State and North-West provinces is likely to be much less than the intentions to plant, due to the December dry spell, of 971 500 hectares and 970 000 hectares, respectively.
A survey conducted of 600 South African maize farmers by Grain South Africa (GSA), found that 2003/04 actual plantings are likely to be 2,19-million hectares.
The GSA survey found that in Mpumalanga, 98% of intended plantings were completed with 55% of plantings being white maize, while in the North-West 85% of intended plantings were done of which 60% was white maize.
In the eastern Free State, 73% of the maize intended area was planted of which 30% was white maize, while in the northern Free State 68% of intended plantings were completed with 75% white maize, GSA said. – I-Net Bridge