President Thabo Mbeki is expected to review South Africa’s achievements and future challenges when he delivers his State of the Nation address to Parliament on Friday, according to analysts.
A senior government official said Mbeki would review the country’s progress in the first 10 years of democracy. He is also expected to outline the challenges facing South Africa in the coming decade.
Political and economic analysts are predicting that Mbeki would stick to safe topics, such as South Africa’s stability and the New Partnership for Africa’s Development.
This being an election year, Mbeki would be even more eager to focus on his successes, said Professor Willie Breytenbach of the University of Stellenbosch.
”He won’t talk about Aids or Zimbabwe or the arms deal. He’ll stick to issues that will be catching more votes.”
Breytenbach said Mbeki would speak about poverty reduction, the expanded public works programme, black empowerment, the importance of African unity and the African Union.
He warned that while Zimbabwe and the arms deal furore would not hurt Mbeki, ultimately he would lose votes on the HIV and Aids issue.
”Aids will affect him because it is a black issue. The arms deal is seen as a white issue. HIV knows no colour or race so Thabo Mbeki will be ignoring this one at some peril.”
He said black civil society is also restless about Mbeki’s silence on the human rights abuses taking place in Zimbabwe.
”While there is admiration for what Bob [President Robert Mugabe] does in terms of land there is concern over the human rights abuses, the bullying of trade unions and the closing down of [the] media.”
The director of the Centre for Policy Studies, Dr Chris Landsberg, said one of the main themes would be South Africa’s stability.
”He will make the case that South Africa has many challenges but it remains stable. We did not implode or have a racial civil war.”
Landsberg expected Mbeki to also touch on economic growth.
”There will be a lot of number crunching and statistics in terms of the economy. I expect he will remind us that during apartheid there was negative growth and now the economy was doing better.”
Landsberg expected Aids and Zimbabwe to be included in the address.
”He will say something about Aids … probably remind us about the roll-out of anti-retrovirals. On Zimbabwe he will pledge that he is committed to finding a solution. He won’t go into any great detail on either topic. He will not satisfy critics with what he is going to say.”
Economists were confident Mbeki’s address would not seriously affect the markets.
Econometrix economist George Glynos said while he did not expect the rand to be affected, the bond market could react negatively.
”The only market that could seriously react to Mbeki’s address might be the bond market. If he announces more spending then the bonds will react negatively.”
Glynos said he did not expect the rand to be affected at all.
”The markets will take the address in its stride.”
He expected the address to hold an expansionary theme, with Mbeki outlining plans to increase spending to promote growth.
Senior Standard Bank economist Dr Johan Botha said there would be politicking in his speech but not enough to upset the markets.
”There’s so much going on at the moment; the State of the Nation address, the Budget and the upcoming elections. This dilutes what people think may come up in the address.”
Glynos said he was looking to see what Mbeki would say about Aids.
”It would be a feather in his cap if he speaks about the roll-out of anti-retrovirals. As long as he stays away from topics like what causes Aids and sticks to the roll-out plan everything should be fine.”
Mbeki has in the past publicly supported the dissident view that HIV does not cause Aids. In his previous State of the Nation address, Mbeki touched on the disease in 34 words.
Meanwhile, Parliament is a hive of activity as final preparations are under way for the event — which is likely to cost about R1,4-million.
The theme for this year’s parliamentary opening will be unity, said National Assembly Speaker Frene Ginwala.
Children born in 1994 — the year of the first democratic election — will form a guard of honour for Mbeki at the Marks Building in the parliamentary complex. Military bands and a fly-past by the air force will add colour to the occasion. African Footprint members will perform on stages outside the parliamentary buildings.
The official programme starts at about 10am with the president’s ceremonial vehicle driving through a section of the central business district to the parliamentary gates, where he will be met by the presiding officers.
The procession from there to the National Assembly entrance will include the speakers and premiers of the nine provinces, and members of the judiciary.
Mbeki will acknowledge a 21-gun salute from a podium in front of the National Assembly, before he delivers his address at 11am.
The proceedings will also be broadcast live in both English and French to several African states. — Sapa
DA suggests tips for Mbeki