Zimbabwe’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is locked in a conundrum over whether or not to contest next year’s general election under the current electoral framework and in the prevailing political climate.
Fierce debate is raging in the MDC and in civil society as the opposition gears up for its third national electoral test since its launch in 1999.
The MDC contested and controversially lost the 2000 parliamentary and 2002 presidential elections amid allegations of vote-rigging and violence.
MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai said his party was currently pondering the election dilemma.
“The debate is going on and we want it to sink to the grassroots so that there can be wide consultations, but we don’t want it to kill our momentum and allow inertia to set in,” Tsvangirai said.
“Both arguments for and against boycott are justified. What is the point of contesting an election in which the winner is predetermined? At the same time, what would a boycott achieve? That is the predicament.”
Zimbabwean Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa has said government will not introduce electoral law reforms to level the playing field.
He has claimed the MDC wanted to boycott the election “because they know they will be trounced. Boycott or no boycott, the election will go ahead,” he said.
Those who want a boycott argue that an MDC involvement would only serve to legitimise an election that will predictably be won by Zanu-PF — courtesy of a flawed electoral system open to manipulation and political violence and
intimidation.
If the MDC pulls out, proponents of this view argue, an exacerbated legitimacy crisis would consign Zanu-PF into deeper isolation — both at home and abroad — and thus impair its ability to function effectively to sustain its arbitrary rule.
The other view is that there is absolutely nothing to be gained by a boycott.
Opponents of a boycott say it would only serve to secure Zanu-PF an absolute majority and, with it, the power to amend the Constitution as and when it wishes to consolidate its power.
Political analysts warn that if the MDC boycotts the poll it will be voluntarily electing to banish itself to the political wilderness where it risks redundancy and disintegration.
They say this strategy will not work because Mugabe no longer really cares about the issue of popular legitimacy as he has been ruling regardless.
Mugabe recently said he could retire in five years time — which means he is prepared to hang on to power by his fingernails until he finishes his current term.
“One of the major problems which we face in Zimbabwe is that we have a lot of opposition to the opposition. We have many opposition people more opposed to the MDC than Zanu-PF,” Tsvangirai said.
“The other problem is that we are fighting a former liberation movement. It’s always difficult in that kind of environment to abandon the electoral process in favour of civil resistance and defiance.”