Irish Prime Minister Bertie Ahern this week launched consultations to salvage a deal on the European Union’s controversial Constitution.
Hopes suffered a blow on Tuesday when Spain flatly rejected a German-backed compromise on the crucial issue of voting weights in a union of 25 members.
Now, with two weeks left before Ahern is to report to a Brussels summit on whether agreement is possible, the chances of a breakthrough are diminishing.
”Greater movement is needed,” the Dublin government warned in a statement.
Failure would mean embarrassing deadlock just as the EU undergoes its historic ”big bang” on May 1. After that, there is insufficient time to close a deal before the European elections in June.
It is recognised that if the Irish, current holders of the EU presidency, do fail, there is little prospect that The Netherlands or Luxembourg, running the next two summits, will succeed. Britain, where the issue is mired in domestic politics, takes over the hot seat in July next year.
On Wednesday Ahern met Danish Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen before talks with British Prime Minister Tony Blair on Thursday.
”If the political will exists, important points that are still open can be solved,” Dick Roche, Ireland’s European Affairs Minister, told members of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. The 465-article Constitution aims to streamline the EU’s decision-making and bolster its international standing by creating the posts of foreign minister and president, and deepening defence cooperation.
Talks broke down in December when Spain and Poland rejected a voting system giving greater weight to population. Ireland is now proposing a formula to reduce the power of big member states to block EU initiatives.
Decisions could be made by 55% of states representing 55% of the population, instead of the formula proposed by the European convention of 50% of states representing 60% of the population.
This would prevent Britain, France and Germany, whose populations add up to 44% of a 25-member EU, blocking decisions on their own.
Berlin, Paris and London are tending to hold their own summits, triggering accusations of driving policy in their own interests.
Germany signalled this week that it could live with the Irish formula, but France remains distinctly lukewarm. — Â