Delays and intransigence in the Great Lakes are threatening the delicate mediation achievements of South Africa in Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Presidents Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania, Yoweri Museveni of Uganda and Domitien Ndayizeye of Burundi met in Dar es Salaam last weekend to talk about putting the Burundi peace process back on track.
The process suffered a major blow with the withdrawal of the major rebel group, the Forces for the Defence of Democracy (FDD) of Pierre Nkurunziza, from the transitional government.
FDD spokesperson Ramadhan Kar-enga said it would not return until Ndayizeye provided the number of government jobs for former FDD fighters that had previously been agreed to.
The Burundi president had appointed FDD members as ambassadors, provincial governors, advisers and administrators.
However, the FDD said it would not budge until it got the 20% of public service posts and 35% of the intelligence service it had been promised when it entered into the transitional process last December.
But it was not to the FDD that the presidents addressed their wrath.
Museveni rounded on the smaller Forces for National Liberation (FNL) of Agathon Rwasa, which is still fighting government forces within earshot of the capital, Bujumbura.
The Ugandan leader recalled that the FNL had not heeded the three-month deadline set by a regional summit last November to lay down arms and join the negotiations. Museveni said another summit would consider regional action against the FNL.
The presidents did not name a date for the summit — although Ndayizeye told reporters after the meeting that it would probably take place in early June — which leaves South African Deputy President Jacob Zuma champing at the bit.
As chief mediator in the Burundi process, Zuma’s next move is to meet Rwasa. Administrative bungles and the election delayed a meeting planned for March, but Zuma has to regain momentum if there is any hope of Burundi holding elections in November.
Analysts increasingly believe that forcing that poll, to comply with terms of the Arusha agreement of 30 months ago, could fling the country back into civil war.
Existing problems notwithstanding, fighting has stopped in 16 of Burundi’s 17 provinces.
The United Nations is set to take over peacekeeping duties there from the African Union force, led by South Africa, which has been in Burundi since May last year.
Across the western border in the DRC the Kivu provinces continue to suck the hind teat of the political settlement brokered by South Africa in December 2002. The UN reported last month that there are 1,2-million internally displaced people in the Kivus alone.
Hans Romkema of the Life and Peace Institute in the DRC has reported to the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria that residents with property in those troubled provinces continue to face high degrees of violence and abject poverty.
“The process agreed in South Africa is not being implemented and, at its best, is well behind schedule,” said Romkema.
“The components of the transitional government lack common objectives and mistrust each other tremendously. The process is often paralysed because one of the parties is afraid that another may gain something.
“This results in stalemates in the process of appointing the new administration at the provincial level or proposing laws on issues like the national census, elections or nationality to Parliament.
“In the Kivus there are numerous problems between and within communities or political currents as well as with the country’s neighbours Rwanda, Burundi and Uganda. But those problems would have not easily turned violent without bad leadership provided by the transitional government.
“The most important fact that led on several occasions to crisis situations in north or south Kivu is the non- unified command structure of the army.”
Romkema said that despite the transitional arrangements the military structures with the Presidency and the former rebel RCD regularly bypassed one another and gave instructions to their loyalists in the field.
“The main reason for the lack of unity in the security forces is the mistrust between former belligerents,” he said.
There was some doubt about the level of control President Joseph Kabila and Vice-President Azarias Ruberwa exercised over their own structures.
“The people of the DRC and many of the military and political players — in both the east and west of the country — have gained too little from the peace process to fully support its main actors.
“This needs to change soon otherwise more groups may start dissociating themselves from the transitional government.”
A number of groups had already done this, said Romkema. While they are not yet recognised as rebels, this was, in fact their status.
In particular the north Kivu strongman, Eugene Serufuli, threatened to make the region unmanageable for the Kinshasa authority if he was not confirmed as provincial governor.
“Unless things change dramatically, there is a risk of new rebellions or a situation where the government has hardly any authority in many areas of the Kivus, as is the case in Ituri,” said Romkema.