The smart money is on Botswana going to the polls on October 16. President Festus Mogae made this the stuff of wagers by dissolving his country’s Parliament last week without actually naming an election date.
In most African countries this would be seen as ominous. But Botswana is the continent’s longest continuous multi-party democracy.
So complaints about Mogae’s decision to wait until it suits the government to name the election date have been limited to disparate opposition groups.
The major opponent of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party — which has held power since the country’s independence from Britain in 1966 —is the Botswana National Front, which has recently suffered yet another split.
At least a dozen parties will contest the general election. A healthy sign for democrats, to be sure. But it amounts to an insurance policy for Mogae, who became president in 1998 on the resignation of Sir Ketumile Masire and has promised this will be his last term in the top job.
It is safe to say, therefore, that the hot-zone media specialists will give this election a miss.
The Botswana Congress Party (BCP), the second-largest opposition party, has sought to draw the region’s attention to an effective media blackout of the government’s opponents.
The BCP went to the Southern African Development Community last month insisting that Botswana was contravening the regional guideline on ”level coverage” of all parties.
Botswana has a vigorous print media that doesn’t spare the government. Mogae’s administration has spitefully responded to sustained criticism by withholding government advertising from the offending newspapers.
Television, a four-year-old phenomenon, is state-controlled. It shows Mogae and his deputy Ian Khama going about affairs of state and gives scant attention to opposition groups.
State-owned newspapers have preferred to stop running profiles of election candidates rather than have to include opposition members.
Earning an average of R24 000 a year, Batswana have less to complain about than virtually all other Africans.
The government has taken care to see its wealth — three-quarters of which is derived from diamond mining — trickle down to the people.
In a recent profile on the country, Jenny Clover of the Institute for Security Studies notes that ”Botswana has shown the highest level of per-capita growth of any country in the world in the last 35 years.
”It is widely recognised for its prudent macroeconomic management. This recognition has taken the form of credit ratings that place it on a par with some of the best-performing emerging-market economies.
”But Botswana presents a paradox. There are parts of the country where it is said poverty is endemic and for many, livelihoods have suffered to the extent that some are supported only by state destitute payments.
”It is the only country of 21 in the world that recorded a drop in the human development index (HDI) during the period 1990 to 2001 and simultaneously experienced rapid economic growth.
”The decline in Botswana’s HDI has been dramatic, from 0,674 in 1990 to 0,614 in 2001, placing it among only four countries [the other three being the Russian Federation, Moldova and Lesotho] to witness such a marked fall.”
In recent months more cracks have shown on the Botswana fresco.
A group of San are currently in the United States drumming up international support for their case against the government kicking them off their land in the Central Botswana Game Reserve.
The government says it wants to provide better living conditions for the San, half of the world’s remaining 100 000 live under its control.
San representatives, who will be back in court in November, say the government wants them out of the way so it can prospect for more diamonds for the Debswana operation it shares equally with De Beers.
Miners from the country’s three major pits returned from a 12-day strike this week determined to continue pushing the company for higher wages. They earn an average of R2 000 a month. The government insisted the work stoppage would not affect its annual target of 30-million carats, making Botswana the world’s largest supplier of uncut diamonds.
It is HIV/Aids, however, that will dominate the election campaign.
More than one in three Batswana is HIV-positive and the scourge has dropped life expectancy to 49.
With a population of 1,8-million, the government is able to provide free anti-retrovirals, but opposition groups say these are not good enough without a healthy diet. Which means that in fighting the dreaded HIV/Aids Mogae is confronted with another vexatious three-letter acronym: HDI.