South African banking group Absa’s share price touched an all-time high of R62,50 a share on Wednesday morning after the group issued a cautionary stating that it is in talks that might result in a controlling stake in the bank being acquired.
At 10.30am, Absa’s share price was quoted at R61,30 per share — up 1,32% or 50 cents on Wednesday’s closing price of R60,50 on the JSE Securities Exchange.
This fuelled speculation that Sanlam, Absa’s largest shareholder, is planning to sell its 21% stake — likely to a foreign bank. The names of Barclays and Standard Chartered are being bandied about as likely suitors, with some saying HSBC can also not be ruled out.
Lending some possible credence to the rumours is that fact that shares in Barclays plc and Standard Chartered plc moved lower in early trade on Thursday, which AFX quoted dealers saying was on renewed speculation that the banks are mulling acquisitions in South Africa.
CSFB said in a note to clients that Sanlam may sell its 21% stake in Absa.
Previously, Barclays was thought to be the favoured bidder for Absa, but today CSFB argued that Standard Chartered would be the most likely predator, given recent comments from the group about consumer banking in South Africa.
CSFB said this would be a big deal for Standard Chartered, assuming they second-step to a full deal, though it also noted it is not difficult to make the numbers work, given the low valuations of Absa.
Given the recent rally in Standard Chartered and the stock trading on a price/earnings multiple of 12,9 times 2005 forecasts, CSFB recommended taking some profits.
Sanlam’s shares were also up on Thursday morning. At 10.30am, it was being quoted at R10,30 per share — up 3.10% or 31 cents on Wednesday’s closing price. However, in earlier trade it touched an intraday
high of R10,40 per share.
In a reference to Absa’s cautionary on Thursday, Sanlam said only: “As its largest single shareholder, Sanlam has a substantial strategic interest in Absa. The Sanlam board will consider any offer for its investment in Absa on the potential to deliver appropriate value for Sanlam. Shareholders will be kept informed of all relevant developments.”
While it did not come straight out and confirm that it is in talks to sell its stake, analysts reckon that as the largest shareholder in Absa, Sanlam is the likely seller and that the likely buyer is a British bank.
However, some have pointed out that the Absa cautionary refers to a “controlling stake”, which could imply that there would have to be more than just one seller.
One analyst adds that the deal is likely to be well received as Sanlam would finally be able to realise its investment in Absa at good levels. — I-Net Bridge