The South African government, in its Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on Tuesday, said that stability of the rand was its main foreign exchange policy goal. The MTBPS provides an update on the current year’s budget progress and estimates for the next three financial year.
“For many firms it is not the level of the rand, but capacity to absorb risk and adapt market strategies, that is critical. Smaller businesses and the poor generally have limited capacity to hedge against economic risks. Thus, the primary focus of government’s exchange rate policy is to reduce rand volatility. The closure of the net open forward position of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), healthy capital inflows and low and stable inflation within the target band should contribute to greater stability of the rand over the medium term,” the Treasury said.
The rand has been fairly stable since March 2004, trading in a R5,88 per US dollar to R7,13 per US dollar band, which mirrored the relative stability of the US dollar against the euro as it traded in a $1,18 to $1,25 per euro band.
Over the past ten days, the dollar has moved out of the range, moving back to its February 2004 worst level of $1,29 per euro and the rand has appreciated from R6,46 per dollar on October 18 to R6,09 on October 25.
The Treasury expects the rand to weaken on a real trade-weighted basis in coming years and has used indicative rates of R7,1 per US dollar for April 2005, which is when it usually launches a $1-billion foreign bond, R7,78 in April 2006 and R8,59 in April 2007.
Former Treasury director general Maria Ramos said at the time of the February 2003 Budget that any such indicative figure was not a forecast, but was a “pencilled in number” to illustrate how the government’s borrowing requirement would be financed.
Housing market not in a bubble yet
South Africa’s housing market is not experiencing a bubble yet, according to Finance Minister Trevor Manuel.
Manuel said that he believed that household debt, at 54% of disposable income currently, was “not in a bad place” compared to that of Australia, at around 172%, or the US, at around 120%.
“I’m not concerned about South Africa because the key is the match between the value of the asset and the size of the mortgage,” he explained.
“If there is a mismatch between these, it brings on a bubble, and while there has been an acceleration in house prices, it doesn’t look like a bubble yet.”
Another key to a market bubble would be if it were driven by speculative activity, he added, but this did not appear to be a national phenomenon, even though there was some evidence of some speculation.
Tax relief not prominent in 2005 Budget
In a departure from previous national budgets, tax relief for consumers will not be a “prominent” feature of the 2005 Budget, set to be announced on February 23, 2005.
Manuel said that the need to provide further tax relief “had to be balanced against the background of the current robust trend in consumer spending and the government’s need to avoid undue reliance on borrowing”.
Previous MTBPS documents have usually contained indications of the degree of income tax cuts in the coming year, but this year such hints were largely absent.
However, Manuel said that efforts to simplify the income tax system and reduce the compliance burden on small businesses would continue.
Consideration was also being given to possible reforms of the tax treatment of medical scheme membership and health insurance.
Proposals contained in the 2004 Revenue Laws Amendment Bill, also tabled in Parliament on Tuesday, will give effect to the main tax proposals announced in the February 2004 Budget. These include tax breaks for broad-based share plans directed to lower level employees, thus contributing to empowerment initiatives.
Under the proposals, companies will be permitted to provide shares of up to R9Â 000 in value to employees over a three-year period, without any fringe benefit tax consequences, provided these arrangements meet prescribed conditions. At the same time, tax benefits from share options for high-income earners become subject to more stringent limitations.
Adjustments provide for Mbeki pay rise
The adjusted estimates of national expenditure tabled in Parliament by Manuel on Tuesday makes provision for adjustments in the remuneration packages of both President Thabo Mbeki and MPs.
Although it is widely expected that Mbeki will not accept a pay rise of 7% for public office bearers — after a storm of protest led by the Congress of SA Trade Unions — the adjustments provide for a salary package of just over R1,07-million per year for Mbeki himself. This is in line with the findings of the Moseneke Commission, which indicated that Mbeki was set to receive R1,066-million rand a year.
The remuneration of parliamentarians — including members of the National Assembly and National Council of Provinces — makes an allocation of R208-million. This appears to be less than the 7% pay rise recommended by Moseneke.
In the estimates of national expenditure in February this year, MPs’ remuneration was estimated at R196,5-million in the current financial year rising to R208-million next year and R220-million in the following year.
However, Tuesday’s adjusted estimates provide for R208-million for MPs’ salaries in the current financial year which is in line with an increase of about 5,8% — which is within the SARB’s inflation targeting range of between three and six percent.
Last week the Presidency said that it would announce the increases when it was ready to do so for parliamentarians and provincial legislature members.
At present ordinary MPs earn R28 845 rand a month that includes a car allowance of R5 769. Those who have served for more than five years earn R31 730 including a car allowance of R6 345. – I-Net Bridge