On Thursday morning a confident Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe’s President since independence in 1980, predicted that his ruling Zanu-PF would reach the two-thirds threshold in the 2005 parliamentary poll and use its majority to change the Constitution.
He told hordes of reporters who followed him to a Harare polling station where he cast his vote that his party was contemplating many constitutional amendments.
”When the country first wrote its Constitution it had two chambers of Parliament. Later on it was decided to abolish the second house. The constitutional amendment would be to bring back the second chamber. That chamber would cater for those people who, because of age, are no longer as energetic as they were, and for traditional chiefs,” he said.
A first sign, perhaps, that Mugabe intends introducing new blood into his government while not alienating the old guard. The 81-year-old leader appears unconcerned with changing his stance towards his international detractors. ”There is nothing to change. We interact with any country that wants to interact with us. There are those who do not want to interact with us, what can we do?”
Opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai was upbeat as he cast his vote, and confident that his party would turn the tables on the ruling party, maintaining that ”everybody is seeing that these are not free and fair elections”.
He told the Mail & Guardian that he wanted to end polarisation and embark on a less confrontational relationship with the ruling party. ”I’m hoping that the arrogance from Zanu will end from now. Zimbabwe has already lost five years in which Zanu had hoped the MDC would disappear into thin air. The next five years should be about overcoming the Zimbabwean national crisis.”
But Mugabe again dismissed suggestions of forming a government of national unity with the MDC. ”Why should losers be in government? What did we vote for? People voted for a particular party to rule. When they do that they are saying you are the chosen ones to rule. People want us to say we are one, when in fact we were two during the elections.”
Commenting on the apparently peaceful polling, he said: ”The last time the MDC had embarked on mass action and civil disobedience. Mass action by its nature arouses animosity and infuriates the ruling party and that leads to conflict. It is not easy to have mass action without conflict.”
This is unlikely to endear him to the likes of Catholic Archbishop Pius Ncube and the MDC. Ncube infuriated Mugabe with suggestions that the MDC follow the example of the Orange Revolution pioneered by Ukraine’s President Victor Yushchenko, who successfully disputed election results overturned last year by occupying Parliament Square in Kiev.
Whatever the tally is after the votes are counted, Tsvangirai’s life will become more complicated.
If the MDC does win, analysts have predicted that the security forces are unlikely to respect the result. If they lose, and there are reasons to doubt the integrity of the process, he will come under enormous pressure from his supporters at home and abroad to do something about it.
A daunting task awaits Tsvangirai and his leadership, who had to tread that path in the last parliamentary election and the 2002 presidential race. Then, they opted not to take their supporters onto the streets, fearing a lethal response from the partisan army and police.
This incensed some of their more affluent and powerful supporters in the diaspora, who felt that however humane the MDC decision was, the party had lost a golden opportunity.
The MDC director of training, Phil Rousile, told the M&G in Harare this week that his party expected to win 60 seats, sweeping both Harare and Bulawayo in the process. But what if it loses?
”Then we go home and lock the door and cry,” he said. ”But I don’t see it happening.”
On Thursday morning voting proceeded peacefully. But the build-up was not completely problem-free. A mere 24 hours before polls opened, the MDC caught a printer red-handed before he could distribute bogus pamphlets urging MDC supporters to boycott the election because the government had not complied with the Southern African Development Community election guidelines.
What if …
Zimbabweans will elect 120 constituency-based MPs in the parliamentary election, reports Jean Jacque Cornish. The Zimbabwean Constitution makes provision for President Robert Mugabe to appoint 30 additional members to the National Assembly.
These nominated MPs will have voting rights in Parliament and can be appointed to the Cabinet. Constitutionally, therefore, the ruling Zanu-PF has to clinch a mere 46 constituency seats to give it a simple majority and 70 seats to secure a two-thirds victory.
The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which landed 57 seats in 2 000, will have to garner 76 constituency seats to record a majority and about 84% of the electoral seats to clear a two-thirds majority.
The Mail & Guardian and its sister publication, the Zimbabwe Independent, asked Chris Moroleng, a Zimbabwean researcher attached to the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, and University of Zimbabwe economist Tony Hawkins for their post-election scenarios:
Scenario 1: Free and fair elections are impossible in the current context; the most likely scenario is an overwhelming majority for Zanu-PF. Should the governing party achieve the two-thirds threshold it is anticipated that it will use the new Parliament to amend the Constitution to create the post of executive prime minister, with Mugabe retiring to a ceremonial presidency and serving out his term in this role until 2008. — Moroleng
Zanu-PF could win, receive international recognition and access to funding, but this is unlikely. — Hawkins
Scenario 2: If the MDC wins, which is most unlikely, it could precipitate a constitutional crisis. The armed forces could intervene in support of Mugabe if an MDC government pushed for a vote of no confi- dence in the president. — Moroleng
The MDC could win and embark on economic policies that find Western support. — Hawkins
Scenario 3: This would see the MDC retaining its seats, while refusing to recognise the elections as free and fair. This would put the ball back in the court of key Zanu-PF players and probably create conditions for the formation of a third political force drawn mainly from civil society. — Moroleng
Zanu-PF could win and fail to gain international recognition. If the Mugabe government wins and is not recognised, the gradual stagnation of the economy will continue and conditions will deteriorate. — Hawkins