/ 31 August 2005

Critical test for Mbeki on Zimbabwe

The Zimbabwean Parliament’s approval of constitutional restrictions on civil liberties has fuelled calls for President Thabo Mbeki to reconsider his policy of gentle diplomacy with his northern neighbour.

Some even suggest Mbeki withdraw an offer of a loan aimed at keeping Zimbabwe from being kicked out of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Mbeki’s Cabinet said earlier this month it had agreed in principle to the loan, but has offered no details on its size or possible conditions.

On Wednesday, a day after Zimbabwe’s Parliament voted to approve the constitutional amendments, South African opposition lawmakers logged a series of questions in Parliament demanding details on the loan.

Mbeki, who says South Africa wants to prevent economic and social collapse on its border, is under pressure to insist on economic and political reforms as loan conditions. He has argued it would be counterproductive to push Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe too hard or criticise him too publicly.

Despite a series of talks between central bank governors of the two countries, Zimbabwe has not publicly accepted the loan, prompting speculation that Mugabe can’t accept the strings attached.

”If the loan agreement had been signed on understanding that things would get better afterward, it would be deeply embarrassing for the South African government,” said political analyst Steven Friedman, a senior research fellow at South Africa’s Centre for Policy Studies.

Friedman said it is unlikely South Africa will officially withdraw the loan offer, but might quietly let it lapse as the IMF process takes its course. The IMF board meets on September 9 and could decide to expel Zimbabwe for falling $295-million behind in its debt payments.

The constitutional amendments approved on Tuesday by Zimbabwe’s Parliament strip landowners of their right to appeal expropriation and declares that all real estate is now on a 99-year lease from the government. The Bill also gives the government authority to deny passports if it is deemed in the national interest.

Zimbabwean Minister of Justice Patrick Chinamasa said on Tuesday the passport provision will be used to stop government critics from travelling.

”President Thabo Mbeki’s diplomacy on Zimbabwe is facing its most critical test yet, and by all indications it is still failing,” said the Johannesburg daily Business Day in an editorial on Wednesday.

The Independent newspaper in Zimbabwe said there appears to be no limits to how far the ruling Zanu-PF ”will go to maintain its grip on power”.

”The incalculable damage to the country’s instruments of governance, its economy and its people seems to be of no consequence,” The Independent said.

Zimbabwe’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change described the constitutional vote as a ”dark day for democracy” and called on regional leaders like Mbeki to reconsider their support for Mugabe.

It said approval of the amendments destroyed any hope of agreement with donors for desperately needed aid.

The seizure of white-owned commercial farms and years of drought have crippled Zimbabwe’s agriculture-based economy. About four million Zimbabweans are in urgent need of food aid in what was once a regional breadbasket, according to United Nations estimates.

A humanitarian mission by the South African Council of Churches to send aid to the most vulnerable in Zimbabwe has been mired in bureaucratic delays. Demands for steep customs duties on a consignment of blankets were dropped on Monday after a two-week delay.

Friedman, the political analyst, said South Africa’s quiet diplomacy has now become ”untenable”. He said the clampdown on Zimbabwe’s urban dwellers and street traders has gone ”one step beyond the limit”.

But he predicted little immediate change.

”They will say mildly nice things about Mugabe in public, but keep putting pressure on him in private,” said Friedman. — Sapa-AP