/ 1 March 2006

Iraq pushes Bush support to all-time low

Profound pessimism about the Iraq war has pushed United States President George Bush’s popularity to an all-time low of 34%, as polls on Tuesday showed American civilians and soldiers at odds with the White House over US objectives and strategy.

While some of the drop in support is attributable to discontent with domestic policies, it is clear the sectarian bloodletting in Iraq over the past week has extinguished hopes that December’s elections could help stabilise the country and pave the way for US troop withdrawal.

Carnage returned on Tuesday to Baghdad and the Sunni triangle a day after the lifting of the daytime curfews imposed in an attempt to stop the slide into civil war after last week’s bombing of a Shia shrine.

In one bloody half hour in Baghdad on Tuesday morning, three explosions in predominantly Shia neighbourhoods killed at least 32 people and wounded about 80. Late on Tuesday night, police reported at least 16 people killed in a blast near a Shia mosque and market north of Baghdad. Earlier, police found the bodies of nine men, including a Shia tribal leader, who were bound, gagged and shot in Diyala province, north-east of the capital. The death toll for the week so far is more than 400.

Despite the fighting, Bush said on Tuesday night he did not think there would be a civil war. In an interview with ABC News, before heading off for his tour of India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, he said he had telephoned Iraqi Shia, Sunni and Kurdish leaders to urge calm after last week’s mosque bombing. ”And I heard loud and clear that they understand that they’re going to choose unification, and we’re going to help them do so,” Bush said. He added: ”The US troops will stay there … until the Iraqis can defend themselves. I mean, my policy has not changed.”

Asked what Washington would do if civil war broke out in Iraq, Bush said: ”I don’t buy your premise that there’s going to be a civil war.”

Public opinion is sceptical that this is the right policy. A poll published by CBS News on Tuesday, found only 36% of Americans said the war is going well, and 30% thought Bush was doing a good job of handling the conflict. Even fewer believed the results of the war were worth the cost. Those concerns have dragged Bush’s overall approval ratings down to levels comparable with Richard Nixon’s at a similar point in his second term. Now, only 34% of the country approves of the way Bush is handling his job and only 29% has a favourable view of him as a person.

Bush shrugged off his low poll ratings during Tuesday’s interview. ”If I worried about polls, I wouldn’t be doing my job,” he said. Recalling his 2004 re-election, Bush said: ”I’ve got ample capital and I’m using it to spread freedom and to protect the American people, plus we’ve got a strong agenda to keep this economy growing.”

One of the few public figures more unpopular at the moment is Dick Cheney, the Vice-President. Only 18% of Americans surveyed had a favourable view of him.

Bush will not be standing for election again but the lack of public support for the war is a serious concern at a time when decisions have to be taken over US troop levels. The threat of civil war between Sunni and Shia Iraqis has cast doubt in the Pentagon over significant troop withdrawals which had been pencilled in for this year, the Los Angeles Times reported on Tuesday.

The two leading US generals in Iraq, John Abizaid and George Casey, are due in Washington in the next few weeks to advise Bush on how many troops they need in Iraq. They will have to decide whether it will be safe to withdraw a standby force and to cancel troop rotations due for the summer.

Much will depend on Iraqi forces. The latest Pentagon report says the number of Iraqi troops capable of taking a lead in combat grew by 50% in three months, but the report said there were now no Iraqi battalions able to operate without US support, compared to three last year.

It is clear that if it were up to the troops, the US would be out of Iraq by the end of the year. In a poll of troops in Iraqi bases, conducted by Zogby International, 72% said the US should withdraw in 2006; more than a third of those said the troops should leave immediately. Just over one in five agreed with the president that they should stay in Iraq ”as long as needed”.

Another striking element of the poll was the opinion of US soldiers over why they were there.

Only a quarter thought their role was establishing a democracy ”that can be a model for the Arab world”.

Nearly 86% said it was ”to retaliate for Saddam’s role in the 9/11 attacks”, a role proved to have been non-existent. – Guardian Unlimited Â